The Morning Call--Technological disruptions

 

The Morning Call

 

9/30/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-go-nowhere-ahead-government-shutdown-gold-soars-record

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

The July Case Shiller home price index was down 0.3% versus projections of -0.1%.

 

                          August pending home sales were up 4.0% versus estimates of +1.7%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/29/pending-home-sales-jump-august-2025

 

The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -8,7 versus predictions of -7.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/29/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-worsen-september-2025

 

                                                  Dallas Fed respondents.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/dallas-fed-respondents-turn-apocalyptic-amid-trump-push-hammer-oil-prices

 

 

                        International

 

Q2 UK GDP growth was +0.3%, in line; Q2 business investment fell 1.1% versus -4.0%.

 

August Japanese retail sales declined 1.1% versus forecasts of +1.0%; August (preliminary) industrial production was down 1.2% versus +0.8%; August YoY housing starts were down 9.8% versus -6.0%; August YoY construction orders were up 38.9% (?) versus -3.0%.

 

August German retail sales fell 0.2% versus expectations of +0.9%; the September unemployment rate 6.3%, in line; the September CPI was up 0.2% versus 0.0%.

 

The September Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 versus consensus of 49.9; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 50.0 versus 50.7; the composite PMI was 50.6 versus 50.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          An in depth look at last week’s corporate profits report.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/27/corporate-profits-in-nonfinancial-industries-plunge-by-most-ever-in-amid-massive-downward-revisions/

 

                          RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/29/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                                   We are witnessing the complete breakdown of the liberal economic order.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-we-are-witnessing-complete-breakdown-liberal-economic-order

 

                Overnight News

 

The US government is set for a shutdown tomorrow, JD Vance said, seeking to pin the blame on Democrats. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he wouldn’t support a seven- or ten-day stopgap funding bill. The impasse has raised concerns that data releases, including Friday’s jobs report, may be delayed.

 

Trump said the tariff on upholstered furniture will start at 25% and rise to 30% on Jan 1, with kitchen cabinets/bathroom vanities starting at 25% before rising to 50% (although imports from the EU and Japan will be capped at 15%, with the UK ceiling 10%).

 

Trump’s lumber/timber tariff details aren’t as bad as feared (the rate is only 10%, and payers of that tariff won’t be subject to the “reciprocal” tax

 

                Monetary Policy

 

              A brief history of the Fed and a proposal to fix its many mistakes.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/29/thoughts_on_how_to_fix_an_ailing_federal_reserve_1137674.html

 

                  Where is the neutral rate of interest?

              DEEP DIVE: Where Is the Neutral Interest Rate?

 

                Fiscal Policy

 

              The central issues impacting a potential government shutdown.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/will-trumps-last-ditch-talks-to-avoid-government-shutdown-succeed/

               

            Tariffs

 

              A positive case for some tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/29/president_trumps_tariffs_are_rebuilding_the_uss_industrial_base_1137534.html

 

              But that is meaningless if this is an accurate description of Trump’s dealings.

              https://dekleptocracy.substack.com/p/trumps-shell-game-threatens-american?r=18lw6l

           

              The Lerner Symmetry.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/09/lerner-symmetry-bites.html

 

              Small businesses wither under Trump tariffs.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/business/trump-tariffs-small-businesses.html

 

              What does the rise in gold prices means.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/weekly-market-pulse-the-most-interesting-chart-in-the-world?post=525464

 

     Investing

 

            AI’s new chokepoint.

                        https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/AIs-new-chokepoint/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP817&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            An interesting approach to valuations.

            https://www.tker.co/p/forward-realized-cape-ratio-valuation

 

            How bear markets work.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/09/how-bear-markets-work/

 

            What investors need to know about a steepening yield curve.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-investors-need-know-about-steepening-yield-curve

 

            Technological disruptions.

             https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/29/thoughts-disruptive

 

            Don’t let your ‘fun money’ trading account get too big.

            https://novelinvestor.com/fred-schwed-jr-speculator-hero-worship/

 

            Gold revaluation imminent?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-revaluation-imminent-us-treasury-hoard-tops-1-trillion-first-time

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The strongest evidence of a universe before the Big Bang.

            https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/evidence-universe-before-big-bang/

 

 

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