The Morning Call
4/30/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Sell in June and
go away.
https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1917211015969677603
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
declined 4.2% while purchase applications were down 4.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.
The February Case
Shiller home price index was up 4.5% versus consensus of +4.7%.
March job openings
(JOLTS report) totaled 7.19 million versus predictions of 7.48 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/29/jolts-report-job-openings-march-2025
Q1 preliminary GDP
growth was -0.3% versus estimates of +0.3%; the Q1 preliminary price index was
+3.7% versus +3.1%; Q1 real consumer spending was up 1.8% versus +2.2%
The April ADP
private payrolls reported showed job increases of 62,000 versus expectations of
115,000.
The April consumer
confidence index came in at 86.0 versus forecasts of 87.5.
International
The February
Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 107.9, in line; March
preliminary industrial production was down 1.1% versus -0.4%; March retail
sales were down 1.2% versus -0.2%; March YoY housing starts were up 39.1%
versus +1.0%; March YoY construction orders were up 3.5% versus -9.0%.
March German
retail sales were down 0.2% versus projections of -0.4%; Q1 flash GDP growth
was +0.2% in line; the April unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line.
Q1 flash EU GDP
growth was +0.4% versus consensus of +0.2%.
Other
New record trade goods deficit reflects more
tariff front running.
Big
problems for Dr. Copper.
Recession
A timeline for recession.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/a-timeline-for-recession
Converging forces point to recession.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/28/quarterly-review-outlook
Inflation
The Campbell’s tomato soup indicator.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/campbells-tomato-soup-prices-holding.html
Tariffs
How China steals.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/04/how_china_steals.html
Lutnick rolls out auto tariff relief.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-moves-ease-automaker-pain-tariff-relief-foreign-parts
Geopolitics
Canada’s Carney prepares to take on Trump.
https://www.ft.com/content/b4d4e25e-24b3-475a-b127-5ca7ddcdc68c
Investing
Optimism on stocks
is only skin deep.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/optimism-stocks-only-skin-deep
The dollar: a generational change?
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-generational-change/?src=news
Update on Q1 earnings
dashboard.
Whales are again accumulating bitcoin.
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