The Morning Call---Negative earnings revisions hit decade high

 

The Morning Call

 

4/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-gold-soar-us-stocks-suffer-worst-quarter-versus-rest-world-23-years

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The March Chicago PMI came in at 47.6 versus estimates of 45.2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/chicago-pmi-hits-highest-level-since-november-2023

 

The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -16.3 versus predictions of -12.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/dallas-fed-manufacturing-conditions-worsen-to-8-month-low

 

                        International

 

The February Japanese unemployment rate was 2.4% versus forecasts of 2.5%; the Q1 large manufacturers index was 12, in line; the Q1 large nonmanufacturers index was 35 versus 33; the Q1 small manufacturers index was +2 versus -1; Q1 all industry cap ex was up 3.1% versus +11.0%; the March manufacturing PMI was 48.4 versus 48.3.

 

The February EU unemployment rate was 6.1% versus consensus of 6.2%; the March flash CPI was +0.6%, in line.

 

The March Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.2 versus expectations of 51.1; the March German manufacturing PMI was 48.3, in line; the March EU manufacturing PMI was 48.6 versus 48.7; the March UK manufacturing PMI was 44.9 versus 44.6.

 

                        Other

 

                          Uncertainty impacting consumption.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/03/consumption

 

                          March consumer sentiment versus consumer confidence.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/two-measures-of-consumer-attitudes-march-2025

 

Goldman raises 2025 forecast for inflation and lowers it for economic growth.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/goldman-sachs-lifts-u-s-recession-probability-to-35-ce285ebc?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

                          Monday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-28th-2025/

 

            Overnight News

 

President Trump said that he had settled on a plan for his latest batch of tariffs expected this week but didn’t reveal what he had decided, after his economic team struggled to coalesce around a remade U.S. trade strategy. He wants to both raise revenue with tariffs and use them as leverage to get other nations to lower their own duties, or make other policy changes.

 

EU Commission President von der Leyen says the bloc has the power to push back against US tariffs; all instruments are on the table for countermeasures; EU is open to negotiations on trade. Says EU needs to take down the remaining barriers in the single market. Adds, EU has a strong plan to retaliate if necessary and will use it.

 

UK PM Starmer says discussions on an economic deal with the US are "well advanced".

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              M2 update.

              https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The weak dollar is MAGA’s silent killer.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/31/the_weaker_us_dollar_is_magas_silent_killer_1100789.html

 

              Fraud in the social security system.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/03/inside-social-security.php

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation galore.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/03/28/inflation-galore-now-fed-started-rate-cuts-at-the-low-point-6-months-ago-just-as-inflation-began-to-resurge/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/03/why-i-am-not-concerned-by-february.html

 

              February CPI versus PCE price index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/two-measures-of-inflation-february-2025

 

            Tariffs

 

              How the trade war damages Apple.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/31/trumps_trade_war_is_damaging_one_of_the_uss_most_valuable_companies_1100452.html

 

              Tariffs repel foreign investment.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/tariffs-repel-foreign-investment-trade-policy-economy-833d4d2a?mod=opinion_lead_pos11

           

              Do trade deficits matter?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/03/31/trade-deficits-matter-do

 

     Investing

 

            Invest based on what is happening not what will or should happen.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/03/the-psychology-of-playing-big-market.html

 

            Investors are demanding a higher risk premium as uncertainty spikes.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/equities-demand-higher-risk-premium-as-uncertainty-spikes/

 

            The latest from JP Morgan.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tactical-tariff-thoughts-must-read-april-2-primer-jpmorgans-trading-desk

 

            Too many uncomfortable things are converging.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/too-many-uncomfortable-things-are-converging

 

            Negative earnings revisions hit decade high.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fundamentals-dont-lie-negative-revisions-hit-decade-highs

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Europe: why crisis and decline lie ahead.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/03/satyajit-das-european-mirages-why-crises-and-decline-lies-ahead.html

 

 

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