The Morning Call--Credit markets starting to blow up

 

The Morning Call

 

4/9/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-pumpndump-beijings-nope-trumps-bessents-hope

 

            A breadth based ‘bottom’ signal has been triggered.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/breadth-based-bottom-signal-stocks-has-triggered

 

            Credit markets are starting to crack.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/avalanche-has-really-just-started-credit-market-cracks-raise-fears-bankruptcy-wave

 

            Credit markets starting to blow up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/absolutely-spectacular-meltdown-basis-trade-blowing-sparking-multi-trillion-liquidation

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 20.0% while purchase applications were up 9.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much faster than in the prior week.

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese consumer confidence index came in at 34.1 versus consensus of 34.7; March machine tool orders were up 11.4% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-8th-2025/

 

            Recession

 

              Still no evidence of a weakened consumer.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/daily-t-p-tariff-recession-watch-no.html

 

            Tariffs

 

Since their implementation, I have been focused on tariffs ill effects on the US and global economies. I believe that almost everyone has now agreed that if nothing changes, the world, including the US, is in for a rough ride. So, enough pissing and moaning about the fallout if nothing changes. I am switching my focus to what people smarter than me think (1) Trump is trying to accomplish and (2) how his current strategy could or could not achieve those objectives.

 

              Trump’s high stakes tariff gambit.

              https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/heres-what-trump-really-up-high-stakes-tariff-gambit

 

              Here is another theory.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/opinion/tariffs-trump-dollar.html

 

This article is a bit long; but I think it is a good attempt at discerning what Trump is trying to accomplish.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/my-take-on-the-new-tariff-regimen-and-the-gift-of-lower-asset?post=491089

 

The problem with telling everyone your plan is that they then know your plan. That is not how you negotiate.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/uncertainty-clouds-outlook-for-trumps-tariff-goals/#more-23838

 

On the other hand, markets are telling you that shaking faith in US safe haven is a dangerous gamble.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-08/shaking-faith-in-dollar-treasuries-is-a-dangerous-gamble?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              And that tariffs are a bad idea.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/08/thanks_to_markets_we_dont_need_wait-and-see_with_trump_tariffs_1102513.html

 

              These irrationalities are what makes it tough for Trump to sell his tariff program,

              https://www.cato.org/blog/five-most-absurd-things-about-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs

 

We don’t need to run a trade deficit in order to finance our budget deficit anymore.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/guest-contribution-miran-were-not-in-triffin-land-anymore

 

              How Mexico emerged from the tariff broadside.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/how-mexico-emerged-from-tariff-broadside-with-an-edge-over-asia-120a5f73?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Canada’s economy is starting to crack.

              https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/inflation-worries-escalate-among-companies-households-bank-of-canada-survey-says-5a90c0bf?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

              China strikes back.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-holds-back-retaliation-opts-strategic-messaging-through-white-paper-trade

 

     Investing

 

            The answers are yet to come.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/medias-piss-stain-starts-dry

 

            Navigating the tariff turmoil.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/04/04/a-guide-to-navigating-tariff-turmoil/

 

            Current valuations.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e21f97b1-cd31-4eb3-b016-2c4c8336946e

 

            Bear markets and bad decisions.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/04/08/bear-markets-and-bad-decisions/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) declares $1.54/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.