The Morning Call---Trump blinks, China follows suit

 

The Morning Call

 

4/25/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-extend-gains-fed-feud-fades-executive-put-strengthens

 

            Volume/price leaders.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/most-active/price-volume-leaders?viewName=main&orderBy=priceVolume&orderDir=desc

 

            Is it over?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/us-equity-markets-have-probably-entered-their-capitulation-phase?post=493772

 

            Goldman says little evidence of US to rest of world rotation in stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-wrecks-sell-america-narrative-sees-very-little-evidence-us-row-rotation-stocks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          March existing home sales fell 5.9% versus estimates of down 3.0%.

 

The April Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at -5 versus projections of -2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/24/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity-april-2025

 

                        International

 

March UK retail sales rose 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.4%; ex fuel, they were up 0.5% versus -0.4%; March YoY auto production was up 17.0% versus -12.0%; the April consumer confidence index was -23 versus -22.

 

The April Japanese YoY CPI was 3.4% verses expectations of 3.2%; ex fuel, it was 2.0% versus 1.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          The state of the new home market.

 https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/23/inventory-of-new-houses-for-sale-stuck-at-highest-level-since-2007-driven-by-gluts-in-the-south-west-prices-fall-incentives-soar-sales-rise/

 

                                                  Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-24th-2025/

                       

                          Germany downgrades growth outlook.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/germany-downgrades-growth-outlook-now-expects-recession-record-3rd-year-blames-trump

 

                        Monetary Policy

 

              Fed policy options if markets need help.

              https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/analysts-game-out-use-fed-toolkit-if-market-needs-central-banks-help-2025-04-24/

 

                           Fed expected to keep rates steady.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-expected-to-keep-rates-steady-despite-trumps-calls-for-cuts/#more-23910

 

 

            Recession

 

              12 signs of consumer financial stress.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/12-signs-us-consumers-are-experiencing-far-more-financial-stress-most-people

 

              How to forecast a recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/guest-contribution-how-to-forecast-a-recession

 

            Tariffs

 

              Chinese factories shutting down.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/our-export-orders-disappeared-chinese-factories-shutting-down-laying-workers-ft-finds

 

              Trump blinks.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/us/politics/trump-tariffs-economy.html

 

              And the Chinese will apparently follow suit.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-blinks-first-china-may-exempt-ethane-tariffs-other-goods

 

     Investing

 

             Update on Q1 earnings season.

             https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q1-thursday-april-24?post=494261

 

 

             One of Wall Street’s biggest bulls slashes 2025 market outlook.

                        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/one-of-wall-street-s-biggest-bulls-slashes-view-as-tariffs-bite?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Things that make you money.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/04/the-things-that-make-you-money/

 

            The mystery behind gold’s bull market.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-mystery-behind-golds-bull-market-236eb513?st=qewJVh

 

            The dollar has further to fall.

            https://www.ft.com/content/976e2798-f9db-46c6-9582-fe237c572f28

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Clues to Amelia Earhart’s fate.

            Coconut crabs may hold clue to Amelia Earhart fate

 

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