The Morning Call---Ramping up the threat level

 

The Morning Call

 

4/17/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-soars-new-record-high-stocks-bond-yields-tumble-powell-dismisses-fed-put

 

            Looking at similar crashes.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/looking-at-other-similar-crashes-as-stocks-target-all-time-highs-in-less-than-a-year?post=492735

 

            Market leadership and breadth.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/leadership-and-breadth-in-the-us-equity-market?post=492727

 

            Market on mute.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/markets-mute-no-risk-budget-no-love-no-direction

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus predictions of 225,000.

                         

March industrial production fell 0.3% versus estimates of -0.2%; capacity utilization was 77.8% versus 78.0%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/march-manufacturing-production-also.html

 

March housing starts were down 11.4% versus expectations of -5.3%; building permits were up 1.6% versus -4.0%.

 

The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at -26.4 consensus of +2.0.

 

                          The April housing index came in at 40 versus projections of 37.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/16/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-april-2025

 

                                                 

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese trade balance was +Y544.1 billion versus forecasts of +Y485. 3 billion.

 

March German PPI was -0.7% versus projections of -0.1%.                      

 

                        Other

                       

                          Dark days for the less mighty dollar.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/f9025965-cc93-420b-9259-eef25e1f3178

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Powell raises specter of stagflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-state-economy

 

              Which, of course, Trump didn’t like.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/termination-cannot-come-fast-enough-trump-pummels-always-too-late-wrong-powell

 

              ECB cuts rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-preview-7th-consecutive-rate-cut

 

            Recession

           

              Results of WSJ survey of economists.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/wsj-survey-of-economists-april-2025

 

               Update on Q1 GDP nowcast.

               https://mishtalk.com/economics/gdpnow-estimate-rises-on-retail-sales-but-still-negative/

 

               Atlanta Fed revises Q1 nowcast up dramatically.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/depression-narrative-bust-atlanta-fed-adjusts-away-gdp-plunge-forecast

 

            Tariffs

 

              Bessent’s grand strategy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessents-grand-strategy-use-tariff-negotiations-isolate-china-rest-world

 

              Another surprise from China.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-appoints-new-trade-rep-likely-effort-backchanneling-breakthrough-trump

 

              But the threat level rises in spite of that.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nuclear-option-heres-what-will-happen-when-trump-orders-delisting-chinese-stocks

 

              Better news from discussion with Japan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumps-big-progress-trade-talk-japanese-delegation-boosted-asian-markets

 

     Investing

 

            Buy the dip or the bottomless pit.

            https://www.acadian-asset.com/investment-insights/owenomics/buy-the-dip-or-buy-the-bottomless-pit

 

            Update on S&P dividend outlook for 2025.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            An interview with Barry Ritholtz.

            https://bigthink.com/the-long-game/the-barry-ritholtz-interview-smart-is-good-smart-and-lucky-is-better/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.79/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            What happened to the Hittite empire?

            The Hittite Empire transformed the world—and then the world forgot it

 

 

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