The Morning Call
4/8/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-gold-dumped-us-dollar-liquidity-fears-grow
Hedge funds hit
with steep margin calls.
https://www.ft.com/content/2e88e9ef-5026-44e3-89f9-c7a09ae7eefe
Relief this morning,
but…….
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/there-relief-markets
Goldman traders
turn bullish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-reward-skewed-upside-goldman-traders-turn-bullish
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The March small business
optimism index came in at 97.4 versus estimates of 101.3.
International
Other
Home prices continue to cool.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/ice-mortgage-monitor-home-prices.html
Consumer credit numbers show consumer is
finally down and out.
Overnight
News
Scott Bessent told
Fox that “everything is on the table” in tariff talks but deals probably won’t
be reached before the April 9 start date. He said Japan would get priority
after swiftly reaching out to the US, but he noted that has not seen a trade
offer from Japan; he added
that maybe 70 countries have approached the US by now on trade and that Japan's
non-tariff trade barriers are quite high, according to an FBN interview. Furthermore, Bessent said tariffs
depend on negotiations which will be tough and the US will not likely have any
trade deals in place by April 9th to avoid the retaliatory tariffs going into
place, as well as commented that China has chosen to isolate itself
by retaliating and doubling down on previous negative behavior.
Bessent having
some success steering the White House tariff messaging away from permanence and
toward negotiations after warning Trump of further market losses.
White House
considers withdrawing 10K US troops from Eastern Europe, a move sparking alarms
in the region given Russia’s aggression.
US President Trump
posted on Truth "The Budget Plan just passed by the United States Senate
has my Complete and Total Endorsement and Support. All of the elements we need
to secure the Border, enact Historic Spending Cuts, and make Tax Cuts PERMANENT,
and much more, are strongly covered and represented in the Bill."
Republicans
increasingly embrace the idea of raising upper-income individual tax rates as
they scramble to find revenue for their reconciliation bill.
Fiscal
Policy
It is spending increases not tax cuts that is
driving he deficit.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5230454-cbo-budget-projections-debt/
Recession
Near horizon recession probability.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/near-horizon-recession-probability-2
Is recession inevitable?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-a-us-recession-inevitable/
Or are we already there?
The labor market is just fine.
RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.
Summary of weekly economic indices.
Tariffs
Trump’s
tariff aren’t reciprocal.
https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans
What Liberation Day means to the US economy
and stock market.
China: the war has just begun.
The latest from John Mauldin.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/07/recession-tariff
Investing
Chaos.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.html
And its
consequences.
https://ritholtz.com/2025/04/the-consequences-of-chaos/
It is not like
this was unexpected.
What to watch for.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-bears-dont-lie?post=490852
Part 2.
What is the Market
pricing in?
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/invert-always-invert-the-tariff-edition
Apparel brands and
retailers most at risk.
News
on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
purpose of a vacation.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-purpose-of-vacation.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment