The Morning Call--The death cross and Market bottoms

 

The Morning Call

 

4/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-crypto-surge-dollar-stocks-purged-trump-fed-feud-escalates

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/death-crosses-pukes-and-parabolas

 

            Three bond stress charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-bond-stress-charts-we-are-watching

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buyers-strike-tactically-bearish-goldman-jpmorgan-traders-discuss-todays-slow-mo-meltdown

 

            The death cross and market bottoms.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/death-cross-and-market-bottoms

 

            Damage assessment.

            Damage Assessment

           

            Gold is up bad.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-bad-rsi-1980-level-bad

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The March leading economic indicators declined 0.7% versus forecasts of down 0.5%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Uncertainty in the numbers.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/will-this-be-week-hard-data-turns-down.html

 

                          Average decline of GDP and earnings during a recession.

                              https://www.apolloacademy.com/average-decline-in-gdp-and-eps-during-recessions/

                       

            Monetary Policy

 

              What if Trump (tries to) fires Powell?

  https://theweek.com/business/economy/wall-street-react-trump-powell-showdown?refid=75FFC898AD6883CBB120FC6A86C62323&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20250418&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              US spending threatens the dollar’s status.

              https://www.barrons.com/articles/dollar-status-threatened-spending-8884c07a?st=wEiNkv

 

              Bessent’s tight rope walk.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/scott-bessent-balances-treasury-bonds-and-trump-tariffs?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc0NTE2NDY5NSwiZXhwIjoxNzQ1NzY5NDk1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTVVY0UjNEV1JHRzAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI5NzY3NTdDMzJDNTk0OEJDOUJFQUFEODY1QzRDODAxMSJ9.hm_h3j8DtrZ41G-C_egBj7MlhZJMpkmonmbD6_GIyJw&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation risk is subsiding.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/21/inflation-risk-subsiding-rapidly

 

            Tariffs

 

The Constitutional issue. This is not getting enough attention to the detriment of our system of governance. If the president can ignore the constitution on the issue of tariffs, he can ignore it on the Bill of Rights.

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/congress-must-take-back-control-over-tariffs/

 

     Investing

 

            Trump’s push against Powell adds to markets concerns.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/trump-s-push-against-jerome-powell-latest-reason-to-sell-dollar?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

            Markets face another week of extreme policy uncerta9nty.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-face-another-week-of-policy-uncertainty-this-week/#more-23894

 

            Wall Street slashes S&P forecasts.

            https://www.ft.com/content/3996c9d4-774f-4d48-affa-9a2fb121c20f

 

            Leading gold and bitcoin to rally.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-21/bitcoin-btc-rebounds-as-trump-s-push-against-powell-weakens-dollar?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Goldman on the hard line retailers.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-americas-hardline-retailers-are-saying-about-tariff-fallout

 

            Plus Morgan Stanley’s take (note the differences)

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/making-sense-discretionary-retail-math-eps-risks-price-hikes-loom

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

           

                        How a gambler took down the Texas lottery.

            https://www.wsj.com/us-news/texas-lottery-gamblers-jackpot-win-40e3d6fb

 

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