The Morning Call---The bond market sends a warning signal

 

The Morning Call

 

4/15/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/treasury-yields-tumble-sp-suffers-death-cross-dollar-decline-continues

 

            Don’t buy this tech dip.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/dont-buy-this-dip/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP764&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-most-important-dynamic-monitor-week

 

            Yield spreads suggest that the risk isn’t over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-spreads-suggest-risk-isnt-over-yet

 

            Despite its recent poor performance, the dollar is not collapsing.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/11/omg-the-dollar-is-collapsing-or-whatever/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -8.1 versus estimates of -14.5.

 

                        International

 

February EU industrial production was up 1.1% versus predictions of +0.3%; the April economic sentiment index was -18.5 versus +14.2.

 

The February UK unemployment rate was 4.4%, in line; February average earnings were up 5.1% versus +5.7%.

 

The March German PPI was down 9.2% versus consensus of +0.2%; the April economic sentiment index was -14.0 versus +9.5; the April current conditions index was -81.2 versus -86.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          The risk behind lower oil prices.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/the-hidden-risk-behind-lower-oil-prices?post=491796

 

            Inflation

 

              NY Fed survey points to lower inflationary pressures.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ny-fed-survey-inflation-expectations-make-mockery-umich-propaganda

 

            Recession

 

              The unnecessary recession.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/14/uncertainty-recession

 

            Tariffs

 

              Whence the bond market?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-market-pricing-in-a-higher-risk-premium-for-us-treasuries/

 

              Part 2.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/the-us-is-approaching-a-funding-crisis?post=492197

 

              The bond market sends a warning signal.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-us-bond-market-sends-warning-has-us.html

 

              As higher risk bonds hit by historic outflows.

              https://www.ft.com/content/b7c14ea6-9df6-47ce-9068-ad15542a813f

 

              Trump calls this winning.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/say-goodbye-to-cheap-socks-and-other-apparel-we-call-this-winning/

 

              Howard Marks on the new tariff regime.

              https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again

 

    Investing

 

            Be careful what you bet on.

            https://www.tker.co/p/pe-ratio-earnings-unreliable

 

            Spreading your bets.

            https://humbledollar.com/2025/04/spreading-your-bets/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.