The Morning Call
4/16/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
This week in the charts.
https://bilello.blog/2025/the-week-in-charts-4-14-25
Bid/Ask spreads
are widening in the investment grade credit market.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/bid-ask-spreads-widening-in-ig-credit-markets/
Gold up 25%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-25-good-luck-explaining-why-you-missed-it
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 8.5% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.
March retail sales
were up 1.4% versus forecasts of +1.3%; ex autos, they were up 0.5% versus
+0.3%.
International
Q1 Chinese QoQ GDP
growth was +1.2% versus projections of +1.4%; March YoY industrial production
was up 7.7% versus +5.6%; March YoY retail sales were up 5.9% versus +4.2%; March
YoY fixed asset investments were up 4.2% versus +4.1%; the March unemployment
rate was 5.2% versus 5.3%.
February Japanese
machine tool orders were up 4.3% versus estimates of +0.8%.
March EU CPI was
+0.6%, in line.
Other
What economic growth is.
What a world in which the dollar is not the reserve
currency looks like.
Overnight
News
NVDA (6% pre mkt)
filed an 8K last night revealing a more stringent set of export rules around
its H20 chip. According to the filing, Nvidia will now require an export
license from the US gov’t to sell H20 chips to China and D5 countries (this
license requirement will stay in effect for the indefinite future). Nvidia
warns it will book up to ~$5.5B in charges in FQ1 related to the H20 because of
this requirement.
White House plans
aggressive campaign to isolate China economically by forcing countries to limit
their dealings w/Beijing in exchange for reduced American tariffs.
Japan is set to be
the first nation to have trade talks with the US, people familiar with the
situation said the US had signaled priorities for the talks, including LNG
imports, Boosting Market access to Ags and Japanese auto legislation.
There is more talk
in the media about the White House potentially forcing Chinese firms to delist
from American stock exchanges.
Recession
Used vehicle sales surge.
Too
soon for recession watch.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-state-of-short-leading-indicators.html
But the consumer increasingly appears to be
tapped out.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/15/tapping-out-consumer
Inflation
The yield curve is telling that inflation is
far from over.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/real-us-yield-curve-signaling-inflation-far-over
Tariffs
China
opens door for reengagement.
Consequences are a bitch.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-end-of-the-beginning/?src=news
Why the dollar weakness?
Investing
The first victims
of the basis trade blow up.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-victim-basis-trade-blow-emerges
How to protect
your portfolio from market volatility.
Protecting
Investments from Volatility
Investor Alert
In my quarterly
review, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) failed to meet the minimum financial quality
standards for inclusion in the Dividend Growth Portfolio. Therefore, the DGP
will Sell its position in ITW at the market open.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Be on alert for
these insurance scams.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/be-alert-these-insurance-scams
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment