The Morning Call---The pain trade isn't over

 

The Morning Call

 

4/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-bid-gold-skids-stocks-bounce-amid-soft-data-slump

 

            Everyone short the dollar. What could go wrong?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everyone-short-dollar-what-could-go-wrong

 

            Or are they?

            Is The Dollar As Weak As They Say?

           

            The pain trade isn’t over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/sell-low-buy-high-pain-trade-isnt-over

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 12.7% while purchase applications were down 7.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

March building permits rose 0.5% versus expectations of +1.6%.

 

The April Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -13 versus consensus of -8.

 

                        International

 

February EU YoY construction output was up 0.2% versus projections of +0.7%.

 

The April Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.5 versus estimates of 47.8; the flash services PMI was 52.2 versus 49.7; the flash composite PMI was 51.1 versus 48.0; the April German flash manufacturing PMI was 48.0 versus 47.1; the flash services PMI was 48.8 versus 50.2; the flash composite PMI was 49.7 versus 50.4; the April EU flash manufacturing PMI was 48.7 versus 47.5; the flash services PMI was 49.7 versus 50.5; the flash composite PMI was 50.1 versus 50.3 the April UK flash manufacturing PMI was 44.0, in line; the flash services PMI was 48.9 versus 51.3; the flash composite PMI was 48.2 versus 50.4

 

The April EU flash consumer confidence index was +16.7 versus predictions of -15.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Share of loans in forbearance declines in March.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

 

            Overnight News

 

President Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prompting some relief from investors who had been spooked by the White House’s commentary towards the Fed in recent weeks.

 

Trump suggested tariffs on China may be “substantially” cut if a deal is reached. China said the door was “wide open” for talks.

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              The counterfactual.

              https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/how-do-you-like-me-now

 

              Trump’s mystery mathematics.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-trump-can-improve-the-balance-of-trade-in-one-picture/

 

    Investing

 

            Peak America?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-peak-america/?src=news

 

            Junk bond spreads still in La La land.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/21/despite-turmoil-in-stocks-financial-conditions-financial-stress-and-junk-bond-spreads-still-in-la-la-land-or-barely-exiting/

 

            Top line beats the lowest in five years.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/top-line-beats-are-lowest-over-5-years

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

 

 

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