The Morning Call--The macro turns darker than the markets

 

The Morning Call

 

4/29/25

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-pop-bessent-bad-data-beijing-batter-crude-crypto-stocks

 

            Record stock repurchases on deck.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buyback-blackout-period-ends-record-stock-repurchases-deck

 

            The latest form JP Morgan’s trading desk.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/technical-nature-not-fundamental-jpmorgan-trading-desk-turn-tactically-bullish

 

            Bounce back too violent to retore confidence.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bounce-back-too-violent-restore-confidence

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -35.8 versus estimates of -15.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/28/dallas-fed-manufacturing-conditions-worsen-to-5-year-low

 

                          Here is a summary of all the Fed regional banks stats.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/regional-fed-manufacturing-indexes.html

 

                        International

 

The April EU economic sentiment index was 93.6 versus expectations of 94.5; the April industrial sentiment index was -11.2 versus -10.1; the April services sentiment index was 1.4 versus 2.2; the April consumer confidence index was -16.7, in line; the May German consumer confidence index was -20.6 versus -26.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The macro turns darker than the markets.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/when-macro-turns-darker-markets

 

                          More Q1 nowcasts.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/more-nowcasts

 

                          Home ownership rate falls to a five-year low.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/28/home-ownership-rate-q1-2025

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Killing the regulatory beast.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/04/25/can-trump-kill-this-2-2-trillion-regulatory-beast/

 

              Treasury reports a decline in borrowing needs.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-treasury-unexpectedly-reports-sharp-drop-debt-borrowing-needs-rates-slilde

 

              Without a change in congress, DOGE efforts will be fruitless.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/david-sacks-warns-doge-will-all-be-nothing-unless

 

            Tariffs

 

              The constitutionality of Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-tariffs-erode-the-constitutional-order-law-policy-trade-d985581b?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

 

              Clarifying the convoluted.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/28/tariffs_and_inflation_clarifying_the_convoluted_1106478.html

 

              CEO’s fear Trump’s lack of success.

              https://nypost.com/2025/04/25/business/ceos-stay-mum-but-quietly-fear-trump-wont-pull-off-art-of-the-deal-in-trade-war/

 

              Tariff induced paralysis (recession?).

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/28/paralysis-tariff-induced

 

              On a more positive note.

              https://www.barchart.com/story/news/32086148/482-trillion-in-us-investments-now-announced-since-start-of-trumps-presidency-451000-new-jobs-expected

 

 

                        Geopolitics

 

              They lied about Iraq, WMD’s and Ukraine.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/they-lied-us-about-iraqs-wmds-theyve-taken-it-another-level-ukraine-hitchens

 

     Investing

 

            A word of caution from Barry Ritholtz.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/04/an-amazing-15-years/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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