The Morning Call--Valuation evaluation

 

The Morning Call

 

4/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-crypto-soar-isms-scream-stagflation-hard-landing-odds-surge

 

            MACD indictor approaching a Sell signal.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-last-time-this-happened-stocks-collapsed-30?post=489535

 

            Pensions spark Buy imbalance.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buybacks-blacked-out-pensions-spark-largest-buy-imbalance-record-rescue-stocks-yesterday

 

            Mag 7 in bear market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ad80f737-3261-4e11-8608-2ed3db522e55

 

            Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary-education/ethereum-is-unfolding-a-five-wave-bearish-impulse?post=489519

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.6% while purchase applications were up 1.5%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

February construction spending increased 0.7% versus consensus of +0.3%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/february-construction-spending-nominal.html

 

February job openings (JOLTS) totaled 7.56 million versus expectations of 7.63 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/jolts-report-job-openings-february-2025

 

The March manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 versus estimates of 49.8.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-march-2025

 

The March ISM manufacturing index was reported at 49.0 versus predictions of 49.5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/01/ism-manufacturing-pmi-contracts-march-2025

 

The March ADP private payrolls report recorded a 155,000 increase in jobs versus forecasts of up 105,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/recession-narrative-bust-adp-employment-report-shows-jobs-resurgent-march

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          The weak dollar effect.

                          https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-weak-dollar-effect/?src=news

 

                          February median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/median-household-income-in-february-2025.html

 

                          Will the next recession be self-inflicted?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-01/tariffs-can-be-reversed-but-too-late-to-avoid-a-recession?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Tuesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-march-31st-2025/

 

            Tariffs

 

The argument for tariffs. The counter argument to this is that the more economically interdependent the globe is, the less likely is war.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/03/on_the_importance_of_president_trump_s_liberation_day.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html

 

              Yet another problem created by Trump’s tariffs.

              https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/mercedes-benz-tried-hard-to-be-american-it-still-got-hit-by-tariffs-f2e1e4d1?mod=hp_lead_pos2

 

              Bracing for the fall out.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/04/bracing-for-the-fallout-of-trump-tariff-delusions.html

 

    Investing

 

            Taming your lizard brain.

            https://www.tker.co/p/barry-ritholtz-how-not-to-invest-cowboy-account

 

            Failure at the 200 DMA.

            Failure At The 200-DMA - RIA

 

            Update on the Ivy Portfolio.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/03/31/moving-averages-ivy-portfolio-sp500-march-2025

 

            Valuation evaluation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/01/price-you-pay-valuation-evaluation

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Argentina to declassify Nazi archives.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/argentina-declassify-nazi-archives-did-hitler-escape-there-too

 

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