The Morning Call
4/24/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/headline-roulette-returns-wreak-havoc-across-markets
The latest from Goldman’s
flows desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-flow-funds-gurus-warn-wouldnt-jump-pool-just-yet
Margin debt sinks
to five month low.
Potential bounce
may be limited.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-potential-spy-bounce-will-be-limited?post=493639
Soar, stall or plummet.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/path-ahead-soar-stall-or-plummet
Market performance
after the VIX hits 50.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/23/gauging-fear-volatility-equity-returns
Review of the gold
to silver ratio.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-to-silver-ratio-2022-peak-to-2025-peak?post=494033
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 222,000,
in line.
March durable
goods orders were up 9.2% versus consensus of up 2.0%; ex transportation, they
were flat versus +0.3%.
The March Chicago national
activity index was reported at -0.3 versus projections of +0.11.
March new home sales were up 7.4% versus
forecasts of up 0.2%.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/and-now-for-some-decent-economic-news.html
The April flash
manufacturing PMI was 50.7 versus predictions of 49.1; the flash services PMI
was 51.4 versus 52.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.2 versus 51.0.
International
The April German
business climate index came in at 86.9 versus estimates of 85.2; the April
current conditions index was 86.4 versus 85.5.
The April UK
industrial trends orders index was -26 versus expectations of -40; the Q2 business
optimism index was -33 versus -40.
Other
The
Fed released its latest Beige Book. This is a summary worth reading.
Latest nowcasts.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/imf-wsj-forecasts-for-2025-us-growth-revised-down
More nowcasts.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-expected-to-post-sharp-slowdown-in-q1-growth/
Wednesday in the economic charts.
https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-22nd-2025/
Fiscal
Policy
Bessent calls for Bretton Woods reforms.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-bessent-discuses-tariffs-global-financial-system
Don’t believe in fairy tales.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-you-believe-trump-pivot-story-clearly-you-enjoy-fairy-tales
Tariffs
No one talks about our ‘stuff’ surplus.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/04/the-surplus-americans-dont-hear-about/
Bessent modifies Trump’s latest China tariff
comments (again).
https://www.ft.com/content/475d61e6-0d9a-43a6-86b6-9248f455451e
Sanity at last.
https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/man-looks-in-the-abyss
Investing
Q1 earnings
scoreboard to date.
Big tech stock
warning.
Foreign investors
dumping US stocks.
https://investorsobserver.com/news/foreign-investors-are-dumping-u-s-stocks-at-near-record-pace/
Thinking about US
assets.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/04/22/thinking-the-unthinkable-about-us-assets/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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