Thursday, April 24, 2025

The Morning Call---Soar, stall of plummet

 

The Morning Call

 

4/24/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/headline-roulette-returns-wreak-havoc-across-markets

 

            The latest from Goldman’s flows desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-flow-funds-gurus-warn-wouldnt-jump-pool-just-yet

 

            Margin debt sinks to five month low.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/23/margin-debt-sinks-to-5-month-low-in-march

 

            Potential bounce may be limited.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-potential-spy-bounce-will-be-limited?post=493639

 

            Soar, stall or plummet.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/path-ahead-soar-stall-or-plummet

 

            Market performance after the VIX hits 50.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/04/23/gauging-fear-volatility-equity-returns

 

            Review of the gold to silver ratio.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-to-silver-ratio-2022-peak-to-2025-peak?post=494033

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 222,000, in line.

 

March durable goods orders were up 9.2% versus consensus of up 2.0%; ex transportation, they were flat versus +0.3%.

 

The March Chicago national activity index was reported at -0.3 versus projections of +0.11.

 

                           March new home sales were up 7.4% versus forecasts of up 0.2%.

                           https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/and-now-for-some-decent-economic-news.html

 

The April flash manufacturing PMI was 50.7 versus predictions of 49.1; the flash services PMI was 51.4 versus 52.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.2 versus 51.0.

 

                        International

 

The April German business climate index came in at 86.9 versus estimates of 85.2; the April current conditions index was 86.4 versus 85.5.

 

The April UK industrial trends orders index was -26 versus expectations of -40; the Q2 business optimism index was -33 versus -40.

 

                        Other

                       

 The Fed released its latest Beige Book. This is a summary worth reading.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beige-book-finds-inflation-mentions-tumble-3-year-low-doge-working-biggest-headcount

 

                          Latest nowcasts.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/imf-wsj-forecasts-for-2025-us-growth-revised-down

 

                          More nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-expected-to-post-sharp-slowdown-in-q1-growth/

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-april-22nd-2025/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Bessent calls for Bretton Woods reforms.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-bessent-discuses-tariffs-global-financial-system

 

              Don’t believe in fairy tales.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-you-believe-trump-pivot-story-clearly-you-enjoy-fairy-tales

 

            Tariffs

 

              No one talks about our ‘stuff’ surplus.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/04/the-surplus-americans-dont-hear-about/

 

              Bessent modifies Trump’s latest China tariff comments (again).

              https://www.ft.com/content/475d61e6-0d9a-43a6-86b6-9248f455451e

 

              Sanity at last.

              https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/man-looks-in-the-abyss

 

     Investing

 

            Q1 earnings scoreboard to date.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-25q1-wednesday-april-23?post=494035

 

            Big tech stock warning.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/stephens-bear-market-warning/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP767&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Foreign investors dumping US stocks.

            https://investorsobserver.com/news/foreign-investors-are-dumping-u-s-stocks-at-near-record-pace/

 

            Thinking about US assets.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/04/22/thinking-the-unthinkable-about-us-assets/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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