4/21/25
The Market
Technical
The S&P was somewhat less volatile last week
than the prior two. That is not necessarily good news because (1) it tried to
get back to its 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and challenge a very short
term downtrend off the February 19 high and failed plus (2) the 50 DMA pushed
through and continued to fall below the 200 DMA. About the only thing it has
going for it is that overhead large gap down open which needs to be filled.
At the moment, I view the S&P ‘s current situation
as being in a large ‘no man’s land’ between that very short term downtrend on
the upside and the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend on the downside.
My gut tells that the latter is going to get tested before the former---which I
think would be a major plus in that it would represent a retesting of the lows.
In the meantime and recognizing the extremely
volatile state of the economic /political headlines, I am happy to sit on my
cash.
The technical implications of recent volatility.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/04/s-500-enters-new-volatility-cluster.html
The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worst-technical-selling-behind-us-us-equities
The long bond recovered a bit last week, though
that is hardly a reason to break out the champagne. Granted it held above the
lower boundary of its very short term trading range. But the level is near a
five year low---meaning that this thing is in the crapper. And while we can only
hope that it can hold current levels, the tariff/Fed turmoil in combination
with the liquidation of dollar based assets by the thoroughly pissed off international
community will likely continue to exert downward pressure on bond prices. At
the moment there is nothing that prompts me to want to buy long dated securities,
though some resolution might suggest nibbling.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-tariff-related-inflation-derail-the-bond-markets-rally/
There is nothing to add to this narrative other
than GLD is getting overbought: It remains well within a very short term
uptrend and in uptrends across all other time frames as well as above all DMAs. Stay with what
works.
The rally has barely started.
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/golds-rally-has-barely-got-going-if-history-anything-go
$5000 next?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-aint-done-yet-5k-next
The dollar continued its slide mainly for reasons
outlined in the above comments. What I worry about the most is if Trump really
starts trying to oust Powell. I don’t believe the markets both domestic and foreign
will look favorably on such a development. And if international holders of
dollar denominated assets really start getting squirrelly, watch gold soar and
the dollar crash.
Dollar crashing.
Friday in the charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
Another slow week in the stats department. Overall, what we got was very slightly to the
negative side, though the downbeat primary indicators outnumbered the upbeat
two to one. So, still few signs of recession.
That’s in spite of the fact that the tariff turmoil
and confusion continues to reign supreme. And not helping was Trump ramping up
the rhetoric condemning Chair Powell.
The longer this chaos goes on the greater the odds
of recession---business simply can’t make spending, hiring, sales plans when
the economic rules are in flux. Every day that goes by with no resolutions to
the current uncertainty, the odds of the economy ‘muddling through’ goes down. And
with it, stock prices.
https://reason.com/2025/04/16/tariff-uncertainty-is-stalling-the-economy/
And.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/what-soaring-uncertainty-means-for-the-u-s-economy
On the other hand, it hasn’t impacted consumer
spending.
Nor insider buying.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insiders-are-rushing-buy-stocks-selloff
Of course, as I have noted before, this could all
be part of the Donald’s grand plan. And like he did the prior week, when the
system appears ready to break, he reverses course (the Trump Put). We can only
hope.
The good news for the week was that the global data
was quite positive including a couple of positive inflation reports (nothing
from the US).
Bottom line: I remain clueless about the ultimate
impact of Trump’s tariff policy; but we now have a sense of where the Trump Put
exists. Still, I leave my outlook on the economic growth and inflation in
suspended animation until we get more clarity.
US
International
Other
Recession
Update
on big four recession indicators.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/16/the-big-four-recession-indicators
Harbinger of recession?
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/housing-permits-and-starts-remain.html
Tariffs
How
realistic are Trump’s goals?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-economic-dire-straits-and-theyre-no-longer-able-hide-it
Investing
A (typically) depressing word from John
Hussman.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/16/the-big-four-recession-indicators
The rising term premium.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/term-premium-rising/
The latest from BofA.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-amid-apocalyptic-sentiment-bullish-roadmap-emerges
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment