The Morning Call--West coast ports brace for sharp decline in Chinese imports

 

The Morning Call

 

5/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/much-ado-about-nothing-nasdaq-ends-april-higher-despite-end-us-exceptionalism

 

            Wednesday in the stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

 

            A pullback or just getting started.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/due-pullback-or-just-getting-started

 

            Green shoots for the greenback?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/green-shoots-greenback

 

            Gold breaking down.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-breaks-down-china-hits-sell-button-and-ctas-line-follow

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

  Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 241,000 versus   consensus of    224,000.

 

March personal income was up 0.5% versus estimates of +0.4%; March   personal spending was up 0.7% versus +0.5%.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/04/personal-income-increased-05-in-march.html

 

March pending home sales were up 6.1% versus projections of +1.0%.

 

The April Chicago PMI came in at 44.1 versus forecasts of 45.5.

                       

                        International

 

The final April Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.7 versus expectations of 48.7; April consumer confidence was 31.2 versus 34.0.

 

The final April UK manufacturing PMI was 45.4 versus predictions of 44.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          The impact of frontrunning on yesterday’s GDP report.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/04/despite-negative-headline-both-long.html

 

                          Here is some good news about the economy.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/29/despite-all-moaning-and-groaning-layoffs-discharges-plunge-hires-voluntary-quits-rise-driven-by-private-sector-strength/

 

                          And some not so good news.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/04/30/gdp-per-capita-q1-2025-advance-estimate

 

            Overnight News

 

The US and Ukraine signed an agreement over access to the country’s natural   resources. The deal will see the US will get first claim on profits transferred into a jointly managed investment fund that’s intended in part to reimburse the US for future military assistance.

 

Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. This possible shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers.

 

The EU is planning to share a paper with the US next week that will set out a package of proposals to kick-start trade negotiations with the Trump administration. The paper will propose lowering trade and non-tariff barriers, boosting European investments in the US, cooperating on global challenges such as tackling China’s steel overcapacity and purchasing US goods like liquefied natural gas and technologies.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The US is running out of debt space.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/04/30/making_a_case_that_the_us_is_running_out_of_debt_space_1106521.html

 

              Trump’s 51^st state folly.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/2025/04/trumps-51st-state-folly/

 

              Top Trump advisor struggles to soothe investor fears.

              https://www.ft.com/content/a815323b-ae2b-4586-aec2-39dec35726f0

 

            Tariffs

 

              Big price hikes undercut Trump’s claim that exporters will absorb tariffs.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/shein-temu-prices-show-trump-china-tariffs-hitting-us-shoppers?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              West coast ports brace for sharp decline in China imports.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/business/tariffs-china-ports-imports.html

 

    Investing

 

            Valuations are still not cheap.

            https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/market-intelligence/valuations-have-dropped-not-enough-be-cheap

 

            The case for more international exposure in your portfolio.

                        https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-are-betting-too-much-of-their-retirement-on-the-u-s-stock-market-74a937e5?st=21KRug

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thoughts on Trump’s first 100 days.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/first-100-days-method-behind-madness-court-challenges

 

 

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