The Morning Call---PPI up 0.9%---ooooops

 

The Morning Call

 

8/14/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/animal-spirits-very-evident-small-caps-crypto-pop-bond-yields-black-gold-drop

 

            Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The latest from Citadel’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rino-market-recession-name-only

 

            Is the Market forming a top?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/is-the-stock-market-forming-a-major-top?post=514348

 

            Quant funds suffer worse drawdown ever.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worst-drawdowns-ever-quant-funds-suffered-july-stocks-hit-new-aths

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 224,000 versus projections of 228,000.

 

July PPI was reported at up 0.9% versus consensus of up 0.2%; ex food and energy, it was up 0.6% versus +0.1%---oooops.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/producer-prices-spike-most-3-years-july-services-costs-soar

 

                        International

 

Q2 (2^nd est.) EU GDP growth was +0.1%, in line; Q2 preliminary industrial production fell 1.3% versus -1.0%; Q2 preliminary employment was up 0.1%, in line.

 

Q2 preliminary UK GDP growth was +1.2% versus predictions of +1.0%; Q2 preliminary business investment fell 0.4% versus +0.1%; June industrial production was up 0.7% versus +0.2%; the June trade balance was -L5.0 billion versus -L4.3 billion; June YoY construction output rose 1.5% versus +1.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Lies, damn lies and statistics.

                          https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-the-inflation-data-go-trumps-way-will-you-trust-it-74c167e6?st=JLHB3a

 

                          Is there a substitute for the jobs report?

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/trumps-pick-for-bls-commissioner-suggests-suspending-the-monthly-jobs-report

 

                          How screwed up are the BLS’s shelter inflation numbers?

                          https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-overstated-are-bls-measures-of-rent-and-shelter-or-are-they/

 

                          Mortgage rates hit ten month low.

                          https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08132025

                         

  CEO contagion.

                          (1) Not Hiring is Contagious - by Arnold Kling - In My Tribe

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              More on the views of the new Fed appointee.

              https://www.ft.com/content/cc456664-363e-4c0c-aaf3-8bb9359a7ada

 

              Bessent urges Fed to cut rates by 150 basis points.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bessent-says-rates-should-likely-be-150-175-basis-points-lower?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              How biased is the new BLS chief?

              https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/trump-wants-a-bureau-of-maga-statistics/

 

            Inflation

 

              Shelter, tariffs and ‘just so’ inflation indices.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/shelter-tariffs-and-just-so-inflation.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              The impact of tariffs on US/China trade.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/negative-impact-of-us-china-tariff-war.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              Could 2008 happen again?

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/08/could-2008-happen-again.html

 

     Investing

 

            Jesse Livermore’s approach to speculative investing.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/13/meme-stock-trading-livermores-approach-speculation

 

            Ethereum’s rally is just the beginning (speaking of speculative investing).

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/ethereums-rally-is-just-the-beginning?post=515328

 

            Gold range bound.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-range-bound-as-weak-us-dollar-offsets-risk-on-sentiment?post=515322

 

            Will small/mid-caps finally start performing?

            What's In Style?

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) declares $0.41/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Queen Victoria’s affair.

            New evidence may expose Queen Victoria's affair with servant John Brown | National Geographic

 

 

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