The Morning Call--Is a second wave of inflation coming?

 

 The Morning Call

 

8/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/sell-all-things-except-bonds

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Pricing in inflation fears.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pricing-recession-fear-goldman-says-its-harder-find-new-macro-tailwinds

 

            Overseas investors return to US market while US investors get cautious.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foreigners-come-back-riskier-us-stock-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.4% while purchase applications were down 3.1%.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese machine tool orders were up 3.0% versus forecasts of -0.5%; the July trade balance was -Y117.5 billion versus +Y250.0 billion.

 

July German PPI was -1.5% versus predictions of -1.4%; July CPI was +0.1% versus +0.2%; core CPI was +0.2%, in line; July EU CPI was 0.0%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Analysis of yesterday’s housing numbers.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/housing-remains-recessionary-why-hasnt.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              No need for a rate cut.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-big-rate-cuts-not-right-now/?src=news

 

              Credit spreads still a plus.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/credit-market-outlook-10/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              An overhaul of the BLS is needed.

  https://edgyoptimist.substack.com/p/the-scandal-is-whats-legal?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2450694&post_id=171279432&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=67wdy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

 

Here is a contrary view on the national debt (higher) and interest rates (lower). I don’t buy it. The reason: his assumption about taxation.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/08/19/julian_simon_redux_treasury_rates_across_the_curve_are_going_down_1129594.html

 

              Why poverty programs fail.

              (1) Cash Transfers Fail? - by Arnold Kling - In My Tribe

 

            Inflation

 

              A second wave of inflation coming?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/second-wave-inflation-coming

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The lunacy of it all.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-spend-100bn-it-doesnt-have-buy-weapons-america-it-doesnt-have-arm-soldiers

 

     Investing

 

            Update on expected S&P earnings.

                https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/summer-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future.html

           

            The latest from Howard Marks.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/19/calculus-of-value

 

            Risk appetite remains resilient for global strategies.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-appetite-stays-resilient-for-global-strategies/#more-24468

 

            Why is the yield curve steepening?

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/why-is-the-yield-curve-steepening/

 

            Hyper gambling eats the world.

            https://oldcoinbad.com/p/long-degeneracy

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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