The Morning Call--Foreigners absorbing most of tariff increases

 

The Morning Call

 

8/12/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/very-quiet-dollar-jumps-gold-dumps-stocks-slump-ahead-cpi

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Buybacks continue at record pace.

                https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-buybacks-2025-3b0ddedd?st=C4P4q4&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Gold faces brief pullback.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-faces-brief-pullback-as-investors-weigh-tariffs-and-fed-rate-outlook?post=514173

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The July small business optimism index came in at 100.3 versus forecasts of 98.6.

 

                          July CPI was up 0.2%, in line: core CPI was up 0.3%, also in line.

 

                        International

 

The June UK unemployment rate was 4.7%, in line; June average earnings (3 mo./Yr) were up 4.6% versus +4.7%.

 

The July EU economic sentiment index was 25.1 versus estimates of 28.1; the July German economic sentiment index was 34.7 versus 40.0; the July German current conditions index was -68.6 versus -65.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Soft data hardens.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/11/data-hardens-soft

 

                          Las Vegas tourism slumps.

                          https://www.axios.com/2025/08/09/las-vegas-tourism-slump-signals-wider-economic-slowdown

 

                          The BLS is on the rocks.

                          https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs-inflation-trump-mcentarfer-3c601ac4?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

The decline in the immigrant labor force is not a reason for Wall Street optimism.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/a-decline-in-immigrant-labor-force-is.html

 

                          Another early read on Q3 nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/early-q3-us-gdp-nowcasts-point-to-economic-slowdown/

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Abolsh the monarchy at the Federal Reserve.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5443048-federal-reserve-accountability-congress/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The outlook for government funding.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/08/government-sold-724-billion-of-treasuries-this-week-debt-hits-37-0-trillion-getting-ready-for-the-feds-shift-to-t-bills/

 

              America’s deficit reckoning.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/11/debt-deficit-problem-isnt-think

 

            Inflation

 

              Consumers bearing the brunt of the tariff hit.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-11/us-consumers-to-bear-brunt-of-tariff-hit-goldman-economists-say?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Tariffs

 

              Globalization did not hollow out the middle class.

              https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/globalization-did-not-hollow-out

 

              Goldman says foreigners are absorbing most of the tariff price increases.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-finds-sharp-declines-import-prices-foreigners-absorb-trumps-tariffs

 

              Trump says gold will not be tariffed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-basis-dramatically-reverses-market-awaits-bullion-tariff-clarification

 

     Investing

 

            The future of crypto.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/5-the-cryptos-wall-street-will-buy/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP800&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

                        Gold revaluation and the strategic bitcoin reserve.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-revaluation--the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve?post=514738

 

            The next financial crisis.

            https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/the-next-financial-crisis.html

 

Is the consumer OK?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-consumer-is-okay?post=514719

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declares $1.27/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The dropping of the atomic bombs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/vdh-disinformation-dropping-atomic-bombs

 

            Tuesday morning humor.

            8 Changes Trump Is Making To The 2028 Olympics | Babylon Bee

 

 

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