The Morning Call--The risk of 'fiscal dominance'

 

The Morning Call

 

8/21/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-gains-v-shaped-recovery-puts-lipstick-otherwise-pig-day-stocks

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Goldman opines on how to trade this dip.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-leg-momentum-has-done-all-work-heres-how-trade-dip

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-trading-desk-start-buying-dip

 

            S&P weakness likely next week.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/spx-weakness-likely-for-the-next-week?post=516761

           

            Panic or buy the dip.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/too-much-too-fast-panic-or-buy-dip

 

            Gold ready to explode?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-ready-explode-fear-says-yes-cheap-volatility-trade

 

The Market

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 versus estimates of 225,000.

 

The August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was -0.3 versus expectations of +9.0.

 

                        International

 

                          June EU construction output was up 1.7%, in line.

 

The August UK industrial trends orders index was reported at -33 versus consensus of -25.

 

The August Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 49.9 versus projections of 49.4; the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 51.4; the August German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.9 versus 48.9; the flash services PMI was 50.1 versus 50.3; the flash composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.4; the August EU flash manufacturing PMI was 50.5 versus 49.7; the flash services PMI was 50.9 versus 50.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.1 versus 50.8; the August UK flash manufacturing PMI was 47.3 versus 48.6; the flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 51.7; the flash composite PMI was 53.0 versus 51.8

.

                        Other

 

                          Update on credit card delinquencies.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/19/credit-card-delinquencies-balances-burden-credit-limits-and-collections-in-q2-2025/

 

                          US vehicle sales rose 7.1% in July.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/20/vehicle-sales-rise-7-1-in-july

 

                          Architectural billings remain soft.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/aia-business-at-architecture-firms.html

 

                          Update on median household income.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/real-nonsupervisory-payrolls-and-income.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

The FOMC released the minutes from its latest meeting and they were more hawkish than expected.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-28

 

              The Market is already discounting a Fed rate cut.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/what-wall-street-knows-about-this-fed?post=516814

 

              Will the Fed cut rates with the Market near all-time highs?

              https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/will-the-fed-really-cut-rates-with-stocks-near-new-highs/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The risk of ‘fiscal dominance’.

              https://www.ft.com/content/8478aaac-0d16-4c52-8d8c-caad02785d20

 

              Another example of the terrible waste in government spending.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/08/20/the_road_less_traveled_the_road_heavily_subsidized_1129815.html

 

              Shut down the BLS.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/trump-shouldnt-cook-books-bls-it-doesnt-matter-much-you-think

 

              MAGA antitrust.

              https://fusionaier.org/2025/maga-antitrust-conservative-no-more/

 

              A currency crisis awaits.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/gold-the-us-dollar-and-trumps-handling-of-the-reserve-currency-curse/

 

            Inflation

 

              Will inflation derail Trump’s agenda?

  https://theweek.com/politics/inflation-biden-trump-economy-financial-anxiety-voters?refid=75FFC898AD6883CBB120FC6A86C62323&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=afternoon_newsletter_20250819&utm_source=afternoon_newsletter

 

              GDP and CPI update.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

 

              Bringing prices down: How’s that going?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/bringing-prices-down-hows-it-going

 

            Tariffs

 

Using tariffs as a foreign policy tool. (a significant portion of this article is repeated twice).

https://providencemag.com/2025/08/from-reagan-to-trump-strategic-trade-in-us-foreign-policy-1/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              On Ukrainian identity

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/08/on-ukrainian-identity-ukraine-as-a-buffer-zone.html

 

     Investing

 

            Updated outlook for S&P dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

               

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Superagers share one common personality characteristic.

            ‘Superagers’ seem to share this one key personality trait | National Geographic     

 

 

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