The Morning Call---Prepare to muddle through

 

The Morning Call

 

8/5/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-gold-crypto-soar-hard-landing-odds-rise

 

Note: yesterday, the S&P closed Friday’s gap down open. The question now is, will the selloff continue or was last Friday a one off performance and the rally resumes? Today’s pin action could help answer that question.

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Breadth surges.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/earnings-fire-breadth-surges-tech-leads-and-us-stands-alone

 

            On the other hand….

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/summer-correction-would-hardly-be-shock

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The June trade balance was -$60.2 billion versus predictions of -$61.6 billion.

 

                          June factory orders fell 4.8% versus estimates of -4.9%.

 

July light vehicle sales totaled 16.4 million versus expectations of 16.0 million.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/light-vehicles-sales-increased-to-1641.html

 

                        International

 

                          June EU PPI came in at +0.8% versus forecasts of +0.7%.

 

The July Japanese services PMI was 53.6 versus projections of 53.5; the July composite PMI was 51.6 versus 51.5; the July Chinese Caixin services PMI was 52.6 versus 50.5; the July composite PMI was 50.8 versus 50.9; the July German services PMI was 50.6 versus 50.3; the July composite PMI was 50.8 versus 50.3; the July EU services PMI was 51.0 versus 51.2; the July composite PMI was 50.9 versus 51.0; the July UK services PMI was 51.8 versus 51.2; the July composite PMI was 51.5 versus 51.0.

 

                        Other

                                               

                          On Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

                          https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-claims-the-jobs-report-was-rigged-was-it-employment-27df60f8?mod=opinion_lead_pos6

                          https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-counting-jobs-is-really-really-hard/

 

                                  A turning point?

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/business-cycle-indicators-a-turning-point

 

                                  Prepare to muddle through.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/04/prepare-muddle-through

 

            Tariffs

 

              Europe blinked and the US won.

              https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/08/submission_accomplished_europe_blinked_trump_and_america_won.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://edgyoptimist.substack.com/p/the-trade-war-is-over

 

              China again choked off critical rare earth mineral supplies.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/china-again-chokes-off-critical-rare-earths-needed-for-defense/

 

              Lessons from the 1920’s and 30’s.

              https://www.ft.com/content/ea294f3a-b741-4cca-bee3-0f8c47b7c1ec

 

     Investing

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seasonality-isnt-your-friend-now-until-mid-september

 

            More from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-we-go-again-largest-unwind-hedge-fund-gross-exposure-covid-crash

 

            Inside the nuclear energy eco system.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/inside-nuclear-energy-ecosystem-where-goldman-clients-are-parking-their-money

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/04/pe10-market-valuation-july-2025

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/04/regression-to-trend-s-p-composite-183-above-trend-in-july

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/04/qratio-market-valuation-july-2025

 

            What to do now?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/sp-500-and-nasdaq-sharp-pullback?post=513199

 

             More.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/bears-have-a-beachhead-bulls-have-the-higher-ground?post=513213

 

            The latest from Ed Yardeni.

            To 'V' Or Not To 'V'? That Is The Question!

 

            Bond investors need to wise up.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2d5b608c-bad7-4c79-b408-2e71839bc855

 

            Gold clings to gains.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-clings-to-gains-driven-by-soft-nfp-and-us-dollar-weakness?post=513212

 

            The end of meme coins.

                        https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-end-of-memecoins/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP795&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            What is going on with ethereum?

                https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/tom-lees-bitmine-holdings-top-3-billion-largest-global-ethereum-treasury-strategy

 

            Iron laws of the stock market.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/08/iron-laws-of-the-stock-market/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why exercise is the miracle drug.

            https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-sunday-morning-post-why-exercise?publication_id=2880588&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=21r0e

 

 

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