The Morning Call
8/22/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-longest-selloff-january-tech-continues-dump-small-caps-jump
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
The ratio of new
highs to new lows is declining.
https://vixology.substack.com/p/back-in-action
Defensive rotation
hints at trouble.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/defensive-rotation-hints-deeper-market-trouble
It is beginning to
look like a top.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-tops-look-quite-lot
The VIX timebomb.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-ai-bubble-vix-time-bomb
Lots of confusion
out there.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-top-tech-trader-lots-confusion-out-there
Margin debt rises
to new high.
Finding solutions
to trading problems.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/08/finding-solutions-to-your-trading.html
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
July existing home sales rose 2.0% versus
forecasts of -0.2%.
The July leading economic
indicators fell -0.1% versus predictions of -0.2%.
The August flash
manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3 versus estimates of 49.7; the August flash
services PMI was 55.4 versus 53.0; the August flash composite PMI was 55.4
versus 53.0.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-manufacturing-activity-unexpectedly-soars-highest-2022
International
Q2 German GDP declined 0.3% versus expectations
of -0.1%.
July Japanese CPI was up 0.1% versus consensus
of +0.2%.
The August UK
consumer confidence index was -17 versus projections of -19.
Other
A
closer look at yesterday’s weekly jobless claims number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/jobless-claims-suggest-our-recent-good.html
Monetary
Policy
The last neo-liberal institutional pillar could
crumble.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-global-neoliberal-institutional-pillar-could-soon-crumble
Fiscal
Policy
Whatever happened to those spending cuts?
The downside to state ownership of private
businesses.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-intel-and-the-road-to-serfdom-17b75049
There is no such thing as student loan
forgiveness; it is just debt transfer.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/america-shocked-after-learning-debt-must-be-paid-back
Tariffs
Steel and aluminum
tariffs now apply to anything made with, packaged with or associated with steel
and aluminum. This is really getting out of hand. I understand Trump’s use of
tariffs to raise revenue (that congress won’t) and to rebalance the West’s
defense alignments. But ignoring settled (constitutional) law is risky because
(1) if Trump can violate one (constitutional) law with impunity, he can violate
all and (2) if sets a precedent, then just wait till the dems are in control.
Investing
Maybe the jig is
up.
https://www.ft.com/content/bef00e74-d96c-4f19-91ca-36979ccd0550
Where to invest
when nothing looks cheap. (I would add cash to this list.)
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/where-invest-when-nothing-looks-cheap
Priced for perfection;
poised for turbulence.
How fairly is your
stock valued? I really like this method of valuation and have been using a
variation of it for years.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/how-fairly-is-your-stock-valued.html
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $1.06/share quarterly dividend, 3.9% increase from
prior dividend of $1.02.
Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
New
Tower of London excavation reveals hidden medieval history.
Archaeologists
unearth Tower of London secrets in first dig in decades | National Geographic
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