Friday, August 22, 2025

The Morning Call---Maybe the jig is up

 

The Morning Call

 

8/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-longest-selloff-january-tech-continues-dump-small-caps-jump

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The ratio of new highs to new lows is declining.

            https://vixology.substack.com/p/back-in-action

 

            Defensive rotation hints at trouble.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/defensive-rotation-hints-deeper-market-trouble

 

            It is beginning to look like a top.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-tops-look-quite-lot

           

            The VIX timebomb.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-ai-bubble-vix-time-bomb

 

            Lots of confusion out there.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-top-tech-trader-lots-confusion-out-there

 

            Margin debt rises to new high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/21/margin-debt-finra-rises-new-record-high-july-2025

 

            Finding solutions to trading problems.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/08/finding-solutions-to-your-trading.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          July existing home sales rose 2.0% versus forecasts of -0.2%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/21/existing-home-unexpectedly-rise-in-july

 

The July leading economic indicators fell -0.1% versus predictions of -0.2%.

 

The August flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3 versus estimates of 49.7; the August flash services PMI was 55.4 versus 53.0; the August flash composite PMI was 55.4 versus 53.0.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-manufacturing-activity-unexpectedly-soars-highest-2022

 

                        International

 

                          Q2 German GDP declined 0.3% versus expectations of -0.1%.

 

                          July Japanese CPI was up 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

The August UK consumer confidence index was -17 versus projections of -19.

 

                        Other

 

                          A closer look at yesterday’s weekly jobless claims number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/jobless-claims-suggest-our-recent-good.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The last neo-liberal institutional pillar could crumble.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-global-neoliberal-institutional-pillar-could-soon-crumble

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Whatever happened to those spending cuts?

              https://issuesinsights.com/2025/08/20/say-whatever-happened-to-all-those-devastating-spending-cuts-we-were-warned-about/

 

              The downside to state ownership of private businesses.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-intel-and-the-road-to-serfdom-17b75049

 

              There is no such thing as student loan forgiveness; it is just debt transfer.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/america-shocked-after-learning-debt-must-be-paid-back

 

            Tariffs

 

Steel and aluminum tariffs now apply to anything made with, packaged with or associated with steel and aluminum. This is really getting out of hand. I understand Trump’s use of tariffs to raise revenue (that congress won’t) and to rebalance the West’s defense alignments. But ignoring settled (constitutional) law is risky because (1) if Trump can violate one (constitutional) law with impunity, he can violate all and (2) if sets a precedent, then just wait till the dems are in control.

https://reason.com/2025/08/20/trumps-steel-tariffs-now-apply-to-milk-and-hundreds-of-other-products-that-arent-steel/

 

     Investing

 

            Maybe the jig is up.

            https://www.ft.com/content/bef00e74-d96c-4f19-91ca-36979ccd0550

 

            Where to invest when nothing looks cheap. (I would add cash to this list.)

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/where-invest-when-nothing-looks-cheap

 

            Priced for perfection; poised for turbulence.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/21/quiet-place-markets-hushed-priced-poised-turbulence

 

How fairly is your stock valued? I really like this method of valuation and have been using a variation of it for years.

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/how-fairly-is-your-stock-valued.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $1.06/share quarterly dividend, 3.9% increase from prior dividend of $1.02.

 

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) declares $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            New Tower of London excavation reveals hidden medieval history.

            Archaeologists unearth Tower of London secrets in first dig in decades | National Geographic

 

 

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