The Morning Call---One way or another, Markets are wrong about US interest rates

 

The Morning Call

 

8/8/25

 

The Market

         

          Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/total-slop-stocks-bonds-drop-bitcoin-bullion-pop

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Insiders sold the July rally.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/insiders-sold-july-rally

 

            Gold eyes break out.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-eyes-breakout-as-trade-tensions-and-fed-rate-cut-bets-intensify?post=514010

           

            Dollar bounce brewing?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-bounce-brewing

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

June Japanese household spending fell 5.2% versus forecasts of down 3.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on new home affordability.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/new-homes-tantalizingly-closer-to-being.html

 

                          Hotel occupancy rates declined 0.1% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-01-year.html

 

                          Wholesale used car prices went down in July but up YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-in.html

 

                          July consumer credit card debt shrinks for the second month in a row.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-time-covid-crash-credit-card-debt-shrinks-second-month

 

                          The contrary signs from initial and continuing jobless claims.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-contradictory-signs-from-initial.html

 

                          US companies doing more with less.

                          https://chartkidmatt.com/p/are-s-p-500-companies-really-doing-more-with-less

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Time to end the Fed’s mission creep.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-fed-has-gone-adrift--its-time-to-end-the-bureaucratic-mission-creep

 

              Phony Fed accounting and its net operating losses.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/08/federal-reserve-using-non-compliant-accounting-hides-over-100-billion-a-year-on-losses-and-resulting-negative-equity-due-to-illegal-bank-subsidies.html

 

              Trump appoints new dovish Fed governor.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-appoints-stephen-miran-fed-governor-replacing-kugler-dollar-dumps-gold-and-crypto

 

              One way or another, Markets are wrong about US interest rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bca-markets-are-wrong-us-interest-rates-one-way-or-another

 

              The Fed’s dilemma.

              Musical Chairs & Policies At The Fed

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The most harmful aspect of taxes.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/08/07/taxation_is_easily_the_least_harmful_aspect_of_government_spending_1127323.html

 

              The importance of accurate economic data.

              https://www.city-journal.org/article/economic-data-bureau-of-labor-statistics-inflation-china-xi-jinping

 

              Trump orders new census.

              https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2025/08/07/trump-orders-a-new-census-with-a-key-directive-n2661525

 

            Inflation

 

              Fed study shows Americans not concerned about the inflationary impact of tariffs.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/despite-bostic-fearmongering-feds-own-inflation-survey-shows-no-signs-tariff

 

            Tariffs

 

              A positive take on tariffs.

              https://nypost.com/2025/08/06/opinion/hey-experts-admit-how-you-got-trumps-tariffs-so-wrong/

           

  Will the new round of tariffs raise inflation risks?

                  https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-next-weeks-consumer-inflation-report-highlight-tariff-risk/

 

              How much will Trump tariffs drive up auto prices?

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-will-trumps-auto-tariffs-drive-up-car-prices/

 

     Investing

 

            Ten insights to making better investment decisions.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/08/10-often-overlooked-insights/

 

            Stablecoins can support financial stability.

            https://www.ft.com/content/3c06170c-0d03-4838-a5b8-f58a07715f20

 

            How ethereum treasury companies work.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/how-ethereum-treasury-companies-could-spark-defi-summer-20

 

            Gold market upended?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/funding-crisis-fears-grow-after-gold-market-disrupted-report-us-tariffs-swiss

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

EOG Resources Non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 beats by $0.12

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declared $0.40/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

FedEx (NYSE:FDX) declared $1.45/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

FactSet Research Systems declares $1.10 dividend

 

What I am reading today

 

            Who is gerrymandering whom?

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/08/whos-gerrymandering-whom.php

 

 

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