The Morning Call
8/19/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Calm before the
storm?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/calm-storm-vol-bargains-vvix-screams-seasonality-looms
Retail chasing,
pros fading.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/retail-chasing-pros-fading-crypto-wobbles-edge-hedge
The latest from
Goldman’s trading desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/risk-consensus-positions-heightened-top-goldman-trader-says-hedge
The latest from JP
Morgan’s desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-market-intel-desk-remains-tactically-bullish-heres-why
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
July housing
starts rose 5.2% versus expectations of -2.2%; building permits were down 2.8%
versus -0.2%.
The August builder
confidence index was reported at 32 versus consensus of 34.
International
The June EU trade
balance was +E7.0 billion versus projections of +E14.7 billion.
Other
Manufacturing is returning to the US.
Slowdown in global trade is coming.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/global-trade-slowdown-coming/
Monetary
Policy
Hints of inflation complicate the next FOMC policy
decision.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/hints-of-rising-inflation-complicate-feds-next-policy-meeting/
Fiscal
Policy
The EU is skating on thin ice.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/road-hyperstate-eu-commission-circumvents-financing-rules
Inflation
Is PPI predictive of CPI?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/ppi-cpi
The
historical muddied picture of PPI versus CPI.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/the-muddied-historical-picture-of-ppi-vs-cpi?post=516079
Inflationary questions.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/18/questions-inflationary
Investing
What is the bottom
line?
https://www.tker.co/p/what-is-bottom-line-for-stock-market
A much needed
sector rotation or an early warning signal?
https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/a-much-needed-rotation-or-a-warning-sign?post=516078
Gold as a
strategic asset allocation.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/gold-is-shiny-enough-for-a-strategic-portfolio-allocation/
The Market is pornographically overvalued.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/your-perfunctory-reminder-markets-are-pornographically-overvalued
Insider selling
reveals fallacy of stock buyback thesis.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/18/selling-reveals-fallacy-buyback-theory
Foreigners aren’t following the dollar is bad script.
Foreign
Investors Aren't Following The Dollar-Is-Bad Script
A primer on gold from Goldman Sachs.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Home Depot Non-GAAP EPS of $4.68
misses by $0.01, revenue of $45.28B in-line
What
I am reading today
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