The Morning Call
8/27/25
I am taking the rest of the week
off to enjoy an extended Labor Day weekend. Unless something unusual happens, I
will be back 9/2. Have a great holiday.
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-bid-amid-cook-chaos-stocks-steady-nvda-looms
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
The latest from Goldman’s
trading desk.
Gold---tic, tic,
boom.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-tic-tic-boom
VIX shorts at
extremes; crash risk rising.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-shorts-extremes-crash-risk-rising
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 0.5% while purchase applications were up 2.2%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster
than in the prior week.
The June Case
Shiller home price index was up 2.1% versus consensus of +2.7%.
The August
consumer confidence index came in at 97.4 versus predictions of 96.0.
The August
Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -7 versus estimates of -19.
International
July Chinese (YTD)
YoY industrial profits were down 1.7% versus forecasts of -1.8%.
The September
German consumer confidence index was reported at -23.6 versus expectations of
-21.3.
Other
Results of the latest TIPP poll.
Discretionary spending and the business cycle.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/non-essentials-and-the-business-cycle
The economy is growing; the employment numbers
look solid.
Economy
Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid
Monetary
Policy
The
one handed economist.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-one-handed-economist/?src=news
The Fed still evading key issues.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/26/fed-evading-key-issues
The notion of influencing
Fed policy by the executive branch is a tricky subject. First, let me posit
that the Fed policy has a long and undistinguished history of being consistently
wrong. So, the idea of altering the Fed policy making machinery has a lot of
merit (in my opinion). That said, it seems to me that altering it by allowing
the executive branch (politics) to influence (have a say) on said policy would
only make matters worse---which says nothing about the constitutional issues
such a development would raise.
Uncharted waters.
Long bonds fall over Cook firing.
Fiscal
Policy
The left is applauding the government’s stake in
Intel.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynecrews/2025/08/25/when-washington-buys-intel-it-owns-you-too/
What are the limits of Trumpian state
capitalism?
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/what-are-the-limits-to-trumpian-state
Counterpoint.
Trump policies are testing the limits of the
economy’s resilience.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/trump-policies-will-test-limits-of-us-economic-resilience/
Inflation
Housing market in deflation.
Recession
US consumers with prime credit ratings are
starting to slip payments.
Tariffs
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/08/quotation-of-the-day-5114.html
Investing
Bearish on stocks.
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-im-bearish-on-us-stocks-for-the-second-time-since-2017/
Investing in the long bond is risky.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-mirror-economics-turn-bonds-risky-play
Gold benefits from risk aversion, Fed
expectations and technical compression.
ETH and ETH treasury stocks are cheap.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/eth-ethereum-treasury-companies-are-cheap-stanchart
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Wild
theories about a giant space rock careening through our universe.
Brain
food.
https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/brain-food-18a
Managing
your income to avoid higher taxes.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/managing-your-income-to-avoid-higher.html
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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