Tuesday, August 26, 2025

The Morning Call--Excessive money growth creates secular stagnation.

 

The Morning Call

 

8/26/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-mixed-amid-last-week-summer-lull-bitcoin-battered-black-gold-bid

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The 90/90 breadth thrust.

            https://ritholtz.com/2025/08/crosscurrents/

 

            Goldman trader on AI stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-top-tech-trader-says-ais-tactical-breather-not-start-broader-correction

 

            Dollar death cross.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-death-cross-and-then-we-ripped

 

            The buyback window closes on 9/14.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/managements-voting-their-shareholders-money

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

July durable goods orders declined 2.8% versus predictions of -2.5%; ex transportation, they were up 1.1% versus -0.4%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/core-durable-goods-orders-rise-fastest-annual-rate-3-years

 

                          July new home sales fell 0.6% versus forecasts of down 1.1%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/25/new-home-sales-inch-down-0-6-in-july

 

The August Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -1.8 versus projections of +0.2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/25/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-unchanged-august-2025

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Mortgage delinquencies ease in July.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/ice-first-look-at-july-mortgage.html

 

            Overnight News

 

Donald Trump escalated his battle to exert more control over the Fed by moving to fire Lisa Cook over allegations she falsified mortgage documents. Cook said the president has no authority to oust her, and she won’t quit, setting the scene for a legal battle. Trump’s move may become a test of the Supreme Court’s intentions when it signaled earlier this year it would shield the Fed from at-will removal of board members.

 

The U.S. will increase tariffs and impose export restrictions on countries that tax or regulate U.S. tech firms, President Trump said on Monday evening, in his most direct threat to retaliate against nations that he views as discriminating against companies such as Google and Meta Platforms.

 

Trump said on US stakes in companies, that he wants to get as much as he can and hopes to have many more cases like Intel, while he added there will be other cases.

 

A senior Chinese trade negotiator is heading to Washington this week for what is expected to be the first dialogue in the U.S. capital, according to people familiar with the matter, as both sides seek to establish regular communication during an extended tariff truce.

 

An announcement regarding the US-Japan trade deal involving a $550 billion investment vehicle is due this week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Fox.

 

The US outlined plans to implement a 50% tariff on products from India. A draft notice said the levies would apply from 12:01 a.m. ET tomorrow. BBG

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Excessive money growth creates secular stagnation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/excessive-money-supply-growth-creates-secular-stagnation

 

              Trump doesn’t need the Fed.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/08/24/if-the-trump-economy-is-booming-then-it-doesnt-need-the-fed/

 

              Trump doesn’t understand interest rates.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/chart-of-u-s-treasury-yields-show-trump-does-not-understand-interest-rates/

 

An important change of policy not mentioned in all the discussions about Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/22/powell-makes-room-for-rate-cut-fed-kills-average-inflation-targeting-that-caused-so-much-damage-when-inflation-raged/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump’s Intel deal.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/08/trumps-intel-deal-the-price-of-everything-the-value-of-nothing.html

 

     Investing

 

            Recent data show risk to earnings.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/25/us-economy-data-suggests-risk-earnings

 

            Numbers behaving badly.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/25/behaving-badly-numbers

 

            The appeal of small cap stocks.

            https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-appeal-of-small-cap-stocks.html

 

            Is the bull market finally broadening?

            Is the Bull Market In Stocks Finally Broadening?

           

            Why the long Fed pause may extend stocks’ rally.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-9-months-on-hold-the-fed-could-cut-rates-in-september-why-the-long-pause-may-extend-stocks-rally-e90f3012?st=Aovbvr

 

            Where have all the contrarians gone?

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/08/where-have-all-the-contrarians-gone/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS:CA) declares CAD 1.10/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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