The Morning Call
8/7/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
More charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bounce-done-fear-gone-greed-missing-action
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
Goldman trader:
stocks are ignoring recession risks, so the trend is still up.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly
initial jobless claims totaled 226,000 versus estimates of 221,000.
Q2 preliminary
nonfarm productivity rose 2.4% versus expectations of up 2.0%; unit labor costs
were up 1.6% versus +1.5%.
International
The June Japanese
leading economic indicators came in at 106.1 versus consensus of 105.2.
The June German trade
balance was +E14.9 billion versus projections of +E17.3 billion; the July
Chinese trade balance was +$98.2 billion versus +$105 billion.
Other
An alternative view of the labor market.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/even-more-depressing-pictures-from-the-labor-market
Overnight
News
Japan cut its
growth forecast for the current fiscal year as US tariffs and persistent inflation weigh on the economy.
This morning, the
BoE delivered a hawkish 25bps cut, with the vote split 5:4 for 25bps vs hold,
and the statement noting that timing/extent of further cuts will be based on
continued improvements in underlying inflation. The vote was the first ever
revote in 28 years after the 4:4:1 vote in the first round failed to reach a
majority.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-england-cuts-rates-4-after-historic-re-vote
The Kremlin said
Thursday that a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin has
been agreed in principle and will happen in the “coming days,” teeing up their
first in-person encounter of Trump's second term.
Monetary
Policy
Will upcoming inflation data derail odds of a
rate cut?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-incoming-inflation-data-derail-outlook-for-interest-rate-cut/
Counterpoint.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/the-fed-set-to-move-faster-to-stave-off-recession-risk?post=513785
Recession
This analysts weighs in on the recession
metrics.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/recession-watch-metrics.html
And another.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/burns-home-value-index-shows-price-declines-in-35-percent-of-the-us/
And another.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dr-copper-talking-no-one-listening
Confirming Moynihan’s
comments on CNBC, Yardini points to continued strength in the banking sector as
a sign that the economy/Market will continue to perform.
Still
Banking On A Resilient US Economy
On the other hand, the credit card bubble is near
bursting.
Fiscal
Policy
Holding the BLS responsible for its work
product.
https://issuesinsights.com/2025/08/05/is-the-bls-corrupt-or-just-hopelessly-incompetent/
More.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lies-damn-lies-and-statistics
Encouraging a
weaker dollar is bad policy. (Reagan said that a currency represents a country’s
stock. The higher the price of the stock, the more valuable/economically successful
a country.)
https://www.cato.org/blog/encouraging-weaker-us-dollar-bad-economic-policy
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/08/quotation-of-the-day-5092.html
Investing
Cracks starting to
show.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/06/august-2025-letter-cracks-show
Bubble warnings
flashing for tech.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bubble-warnings-flashing-tech-risk-highest-bursting-dot-com-bubble
On the other hand: why risk assets are so
complacent.
The downside to
crypto.
https://www.ft.com/content/c8379d47-7f80-4ee6-8e9d-69b379cea027
July dividends by
the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/dividends-by-numbers-in-july-2025.html
Why NOT to invest
in meme stocks.
https://marknewfield.substack.com/p/the-grand-illusion
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
General Dynamics declares $1.50
dividend
What
I am reading today
What
is a catastrophe bond?
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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