The Morning Call---The rising tide of government interest rate costs

 

The Morning Call

 

9/26/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/wrap-breakouts-bruised-bets-and-bubbles

 

            More charts.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/momentum-massacre-stocks-slammed-bonds-battered-crypto-crashes-silver-soars-and-gold

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-mondays-bitcoin-flash-crash-was-first-sign-we-are-headed-meltup

 

            Bitcoin and ethereum nearing critical technical levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/soggy-btc-nearing-200-day-should-market-listen

 

    Fundamental

 

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August existing home sales fell 0.2%, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/25/existing-home-sales-inch-lower-in-august

 

August personal income was up 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.3%; August personal spending was up 0.6% versus +0.3%.

 

                          August PCE was up 0.3%, in line; core PCE was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

 

The September Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 4 versus estimates of -5.

 

                        International

 

September Japanese YoY CPI rose 2.5% versus expectations of +2.9%; YoY core CPI was also up 2.5% also versus +2.9%.

 

                        Other

 

                          August new home sales a statistical fluke?

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-2025-new-home-sales-jump-in.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Update on M2.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/09/a-brief-update-on-m2.html

 

              A goldilocks rate cut?

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/bonds/weekly-economic-pulse-a-goldilocks-rate-cut?post=524807

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The rising tide of government interest rate costs. (in the article the authors refer   to WAM: that means weighted average maturity)

               https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/09/10/15a0d872-7543-4d1e-8074-cc3b7cd0b9cf.pdf

 

 

            Recession

 

              The recession probability is declining.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/recession-probability-declining/

 

              What slowdown?

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/25/what-slowdown-q2-gdp-growth-revised-up-to-the-hot-zone-of-3-8-on-stronger-consumer-spending-private-fixed-investment/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Europe warns Russia.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gold-oil-jump-after-europe-privately-warned-russia-its-ready-shoot-down-its-jets

 

     Investing

 

            The changing investment environment.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5517849-populism-protectionism-global-economy/

 

            The art of doing less.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/09/23/the-art-of-doing-less/

 

            The Market’s performance after a Fed rate cut.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/the-federal-reserve-cut-rates-now-what.html

 

            Not really like 1929.

            Is This Like 1929? Not Really - Carson Group

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/25/singularity-and-buzzard

 

            High valuations: a warning or a new normal?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-high-valuation-for-us-stocks-a-warning-or-the-new-normal/

 

            The case for why stocks are not priced for perfection.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-markets-are-not-priced-perfection-deutsche-bank

 

            Gold’s value is constant and unchanging.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/the-case-for-gold-has-nothing-to-do-with-its-price?post=524603

 

            RIP to safe havens.

            https://www.ft.com/content/2ad561fc-03f4-47b5-8537-7e58355d16d2

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call---First do no harm

                                             The Morning Call

 

9/24/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/oil-gold-pop-stocks-drop-powell-signals-no-hire-no-fire-economy

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Near term support and resistance levels for gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/technical-analysis-gold-tuesday-sep-23?post=524342

 

            More on gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-eyes-3800-as-fed-caution-and-global-risks-drive-flows?post=524349

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.6% while purchase applications were up 1.0%.

 

August building permits fell 2.3% versus expectations of -3.7%.

 

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at -17 versus estimates of -10.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/23/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-softened-further-september-2025

 

The September flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0, in line; the flash services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.6 versus 54.1.

 

                        International

 

The September German business climate index came in at 87.7 versus consensus of 89.2; the September current conditions index was 85.7 versus 86.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              First, do no harm.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/the-economic-hippocratic-oath/?src=news

 

              Will the real Stephen Miran please stand up?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-23/miran-contradicts-himself-on-the-case-for-big-fed-rate-cuts?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              Powell’s remarks yesterday---nothing new.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-discusses-state-economy

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

This author is positing that the huge national debt is not a problem because markets know that the growth of tax revenues will be just as big as the growth in the deficit. I am not sure that I buy the argument; but here it is.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/23/37_trillion_debt_vivifies_the_perils_of_budgetary_balance_1136078.html

 

              Eliminating fraud will save money but it won’t fix the budget.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/social-securitys-dead-people-and-medicares-fraudsters-real-but-stopping-them-wont-save-the-budget-ed7c89b0?st=VTYGHb

 

                          Trump’s try at a planned economy is socialism.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/5512143-marxism-trumpism-trumps-try-at-a-planned-economy-is-still-socialism/

           

Recession

 

              US recession risk is still low.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-will-it-last/

 

              The consumer nowcast is positive---but just barely.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-state-of-consumer-nowcast-recession.html

 

     Investing

 

            What seven key indicators are saying about the market.

            https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-7-key-indicators-are-saying-about-market

 

            World’s largest ethereum holder announces offering, i.e., it plans to buy more.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worlds-largest-ethereum-treasury-holds-over-2-eth-supply-announces-365mm-offering

 

            Stay long but stay hedged.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/you-can-stay-invested-ai-induced-euphoria-nomura-warns-you-cannot-take-your-hedges-now

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Was the Garden of Eden a real place?

            Was the Garden of Eden real? Here’s what archaeologists think. | National Geographic

 

 

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The Morning Call---Powell's last chance

 

The Morning Call

 

9/17/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/dollar-dives-ahead-powell-bonds-bitcoin-bullion-bid

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from JP Morgan’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-fed-cuts-stocks-all-time-highs-sp-always-higher-one-year-later

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-fomo-meet-fobi-market-top-goldman-traders-asks-where-are-bulls

 

            Margin debt rises to record high.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/16/margin-debt-finra-rises-new-record-high-august-2025

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications surged 29.7% while purchase applications were up 3.0%.

 

August industrial production rose 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%; capacity utilization was 77.4%, in line.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/august-industrial-production-overall-neutral-trend-continues?post=522984

 

August housing starts fell 8.5% versus expectations of down 3.4%; preliminary building permits were down 3.7% versus +0.6%

 

                          The September housing index was 32 versus consensus of 33.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/16/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-september-2025

 

                        International

The August Japanese trade balance was -Y242.5 billion versus projections of -Y450.0 billion.

 

August UK CPI came in at +0.3%, in line; core CPI was also +0.3%. also in line.

                       

                          August EU CPI was +0.1% versus forecasts of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/16/recession-indicators-industrial-production-august-2025

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The danger of Fed credibility under assault.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/the-danger-of-fed-credibility-under-assault

 

              Powell’s last chance.

                          https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-reforms-could-spare-fed-further-damage-in-final-months-of-term-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2025-09

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              This is an interesting take on how the national debt gets paid off.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/16/basic_market_logic_tells_us_the_middle_class_wont_pay_off_the_national_debt_1134663.html

 

The cons of eliminating the quarterly reporting requirement for public companies. (the lead comments on other sins of corporate favoritism is a bit too radical for me; but I think that the portion of the article dealing directly with the quarterly reporting requirement makes good points.)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/09/trump-to-give-ceos-even-more-power-versus-investors-via-ending-quarterly-reporting-other-anti-transparency-measures.html

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-16/quarterly-earnings-reports-trump-may-be-right?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Recession

 

              Latest US recession probability.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/us-recession-probability-as-fed-finally.html

 

              Update on Q3 nowcasts.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-report-still-on-track-to-report-slower-growth/

 

            Tariffs

 

Three things you should know about the new tariff revenues. (The obvious conclusion is not more tariffs but less spending)

https://www.cato.org/blog/three-things-you-should-know-about-record-tariff-revenue

 

 

     Investing

 

            Nuance in investment strategy.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-nuance-is-subtle/?src=news

 

            The current problem with corporate governance.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/opinion/stock-market-corporate-governance-ipo.html

 

            Passive investing continues to grow.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/passive-investing-continues-to-grow/

 

            The 2025 state of the investor study.

            https://preview.thenewsmarket.com/Previews/FINP/DocumentAssets/701546.pdf

 

            The conundrum of tight credit spreads.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/09/16/thinly-spread/

 

            Uranium stocks go nuclear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uranium-price-action-goes-nuclear-goldman-etf-desk

 

            Analyst predicts monster move in bitcoin and ethereum.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-ether-could-make-monster-move-next-3-months-tom-lee

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.76/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Treasure from a ‘golden age’ pirate shipwreck.

            We’re still finding treasure from this ‘golden age’ pirate shipwreck | National Geographic

 

 

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The Morning Call---The one-handed economist

 

The Morning Call

 

8/27/25

 

I am taking the rest of the week off to enjoy an extended Labor Day weekend. Unless something unusual happens, I will be back 9/2. Have a great holiday.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-bid-amid-cook-chaos-stocks-steady-nvda-looms

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/seasonality-gets-ugly-here-top-goldman-trader-fears-liquidity-headwinds-amid-late-summer

 

            Gold---tic, tic, boom.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-tic-tic-boom

 

            VIX shorts at extremes; crash risk rising.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-shorts-extremes-crash-risk-rising

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.5% while purchase applications were up 2.2%.

                       

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

The June Case Shiller home price index was up 2.1% versus consensus of +2.7%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/26/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-home-prices-fall-for-fourth-straight-month

 

The August consumer confidence index came in at 97.4 versus predictions of 96.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/26/consumer-confidence-dips-slightly-in-august

 

The August Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -7 versus estimates of -19.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/26/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-remained-soft-august-2025

 

                        International

 

July Chinese (YTD) YoY industrial profits were down 1.7% versus forecasts of -1.8%.

 

The September German consumer confidence index was reported at -23.6 versus expectations of -21.3.

 

                        Other

 

                          Results of the latest TIPP poll.

                          https://issuesinsights.com/2025/08/25/despite-recent-good-news-the-public-remains-sour-on-the-economy-ii-tipp-poll-finds/

 

                          Discretionary spending and the business cycle.

                              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/non-essentials-and-the-business-cycle

 

                         The economy is growing; the employment numbers look solid.

                          Economy Is Growing, While Job Indicators Remain Solid

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The one handed economist.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-one-handed-economist/?src=news

 

              The Fed still evading key issues.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/08/26/fed-evading-key-issues

 

The notion of influencing Fed policy by the executive branch is a tricky subject. First, let me posit that the Fed policy has a long and undistinguished history of being consistently wrong. So, the idea of altering the Fed policy making machinery has a lot of merit (in my opinion). That said, it seems to me that altering it by allowing the executive branch (politics) to influence (have a say) on said policy would only make matters worse---which says nothing about the constitutional issues such a development would raise.    

 

 Uncharted waters.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/uncharted-waters-trumps-attempt-to-take-charge-of-the-fed-a2548461?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

              Long bonds fall over Cook firing.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/dollar-falls-with-treasuries-as-trump-seeks-to-oust-fed-s-cook?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The left is applauding the government’s stake in Intel.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynecrews/2025/08/25/when-washington-buys-intel-it-owns-you-too/

           

              What are the limits of Trumpian state capitalism?

              https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/what-are-the-limits-to-trumpian-state

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/08/25/big-fuss-in-the-media-about-the-governments-10-stake-in-intel-but-just-giving-this-cash-to-intel-under-the-chips-act-was-fine/

 

              Trump policies are testing the limits of the economy’s resilience.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/trump-policies-will-test-limits-of-us-economic-resilience/

 

            Inflation

 

              Housing market in deflation.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/repeat-home-sales-indexes-provide-final-confirmation-that-the-housing-market-is-in-deflation?post=518143

 

            Recession

 

              US consumers with prime credit ratings are starting to slip payments.

              https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-consumers-with-prime-credit-are-starting-slip-payments-2025-08-25/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Quote of the day.

              https://cafehayek.com/2025/08/quotation-of-the-day-5114.html

 

     Investing

 

              Bearish on stocks.

              https://ofdollarsanddata.com/why-im-bearish-on-us-stocks-for-the-second-time-since-2017/

 

              Investing in the long bond is risky.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-mirror-economics-turn-bonds-risky-play

 

              Gold benefits from risk aversion, Fed expectations and technical compression.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-benefits-from-risk-aversion-fed-expectations-and-technical-compression?post=518124

 

              ETH and ETH treasury stocks are cheap.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/eth-ethereum-treasury-companies-are-cheap-stanchart

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wild theories about a giant space rock careening through our universe.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/wild-theories-abound-over-gigantic-comet-careening-through-our-solar-system-fall

 

            Brain food.

            https://www.forkingpaths.co/p/brain-food-18a

 

            Managing your income to avoid higher taxes.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/managing-your-income-to-avoid-higher.html

 

 

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