The Morning Call---Update on recession odds

 

The Morning Call

 

8/6/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bullion-bid-bad-data-crude-crypto-mega-caps-skid

 

Note: the S&P retreated yesterday, marking a lower high. If it closes below the prior low (~6211), that would not be a good sign.

 

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Tuesday in the bond market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/yields-cornered-vol-crushed-equities-drift-its-pace-moves-markets

 

            The latest from Citadel.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amid-systematic-size-resting-retail-citadels-rubner-warns-increasing-vulnerability-downside

           

            Firepower drying up.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/squeeze-chasers-stalling-firepower-dries

 

            Seasonal signs are flashing red.

            Stock Market Warning: The Most Dangerous Month of the Year for $VIX Spikes + Post-Election Trends

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.1% but purchase applications were down 1.5%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much faster than in the prior week.

 

The July services PMI was 55.7 versus consensus of 55.2; the July composite PMI was 55.1 versus 54.6.

 

The July ISM services PMI was 50.1 versus projections of 51.5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/05/ism-services-pmi-july-2025

 

The August small business optimism index came in at 50.9 versus forecasts of 45.2.

 

                        International

 

June Japanese YoY average earnings were up 2.5% versus predictions of up 3.2%.

 

June German factory orders fell 1.0% versus estimates of up 1.0%.

 

The July EU construction PMI was 44.7 versus expectations of 46.0; the July German construction PMI was 46.3 versus 45.9; the July UK construction PMI was 44.3 versus 49.2.

 

                        Other

 

The economy is ‘muddling through’ and firing the head of the BLS won’t change that.

https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-a-river-in-egypt/?src=news

 

                          All about the labor report.

                          https://disciplinefunds.com/2025/08/01/three-things-all-about-that-labor-report/

 

                            More on the problem with BLS statistics.

                            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sabotage-thoughts-trumps-bls-director-tirade

 

                          Update on RecessionAlert weekly economic indicator.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/05/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                          Household debt increased $185 billion in Q2.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shocking-record-explosion-student-loan-delinquencies-marks-start-next-debt-crisis

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed says that it is data driven---but is the data any good?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-says-it-data-driven-data-isnt-any-good

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Maxing out America’s credit card.

              https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/when-will-america-max-out-the-credit-card

 

           

 

            Recession

 

              Recession odds update.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/recession-talk-is-back-but-confirming-data-still-missing/

 

              This analyst just initiated a ‘recession watch’.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/recession-watch-instituted-for-us.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Misconceptions about tariffs.

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/misconceptions-about-tariffs

 

              Tariffs impact on retail prices.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/08/tariff-impact-watch-retail-prices-thru-7-26

 

            The Financial System

 

              Will data centers crash the economy?

              https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/will-data-centers-crash-the-economy

 

     Investing

 

              Update on the Buffett valuation indicator.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/05/buffett-valuation-indicator-market-cap-gdp-july-2025

 

              An overview of the crypto market.

                          https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/cryptos-big-and-small/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP796&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

           

              Secular bull and bear market trends.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/05/secular-bull-and-bear-market-trends-july-2025

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's Non-GAAP EPS of $3.19 beats by $0.04, revenue of $6.84B beats by $140M

 

What I am reading today

 

            Just how bad was King John?

            Just how bad was Bad King John? | National Geographic

 

 

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