Friday, August 1, 2025

The Morning Call---The Sweeney Top

 

The Morning Call

 

8/1/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-soar-speculative-mania-takes-hold-july-dollar-bitcoin-bid-bucking-bond

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            The VIX rubber band is about to snap.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/the-vix-rubber-band-is-about-to-snap?post=512659

           

            The Sweeney top.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/we-cant-shake-sweeney-top

 

            Dollar death cross and short squeeze.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/death-cross-short-squeeze-dollars-revenge

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The July Chicago PMI came in at 47.1 versus estimates of 42.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/31/chicago-pmi-jumps-to-4-month-high

 

July nonfarm payrolls were up 73,000 jobs versus predictions of 110,000; massive downward revisions for June and May; average hourly earnings were up 0.3%, in line.

                                            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jobs-shocker-july-payrolls-far-below-estimates-follow-massive-revisions-lower

 

                        International

 

                          The June Japanese unemployment rate was 2.5%, in line.

 

The July Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.9 versus consensus of 48.8; the July Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 50.2; the July German manufacturing PMI was 49.1 versus 49.2; the July EU manufacturing PMI was 49.8. in line; the July UK manufacturing PMI was 48.0 versus 48.2.

 

The July EU flash CPI was 0.0% versus expectations of -0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          GDP is still growing.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/economy-back-to-growing

 

GDP is a worthless number.               https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/31/a_worthless_number_gdp_rises_not_due_to_growth_but_because_its_worthless_1125994.html

 

                          Real disposable income down in June.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/31/real-disposable-income-per-capita-down-june-2025

 

                          Don’t fall for the hype.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/dont-fall-for-the-hype?post=512658

 

            Overnight News

 

              Trump announces new tariff rates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumps-global-tariff-breakdown-full-country-country-rate-list

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              We are lying to ourselves about spending, taxes and the debt.

              https://reason.com/2025/07/31/were-lying-to-ourselves-about-taxes-spending-and-the-debt/

 

            Recession

 

               This analyst is raising the yellow flag.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/june-personal-income-and-spending-very.html

 

            China

 

              China’s factory contraction confirms deflationary trend.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/07/unexpected-china-factory-contraction-confirms-deflationary-headwinds-overcapacity.html

 

     Investing

 

            Retail is powering the Market right now.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/whats-really-powering-the-market-right-now?post=512660

 

            What is the ‘illiquidity premium’?

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/07/29/what-is-the-illiquidity-premium/

 

            Is there an (inverse) correlation between market cap and dividend yield?

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/07/market-cap-versus-dividend-yield-for-s.html

 

            The paradox of skill.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/investing-and-the-paradox-of-skill/

 

            Earnings growth continues to support Market gains.

            Earnings Growth Continues to Support Market Gains - Carson Group

 

            A word of caution from Mohammed El Erian.

            https://www.ft.com/content/a946bccd-2c40-4dc5-a0ef-d77593bdeeb6

 

            Take August off.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bca-take-august-microsofts-rally-too-perfect

 

            Demand for gold remains buoyant.

            https://www.ft.com/content/6449e34c-2dba-4b44-b5c9-6c916696cf39

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

      Apple GAAP EPS of $1.57 beats by $0.14, revenue of $94.04B beats by $4.88B

 

     Apple declares $0.26 dividend

 

T. Rowe Price Non-GAAP EPS of $2.24 beats by $0.11, revenue of $1.72B misses by $30M

 

Exxon Mobil Non-GAAP EPS of $1.64 beats by $0.09, revenue of $81.51B beats by      $1.2B

 

What I am reading today

 

            Life in ancient Babylon.

            What was it like to live in Old Babylon? | National Geographic

 

                        It is not too late to avert dementia.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/not-too-late-us-study-shows-how-to-avert-dementia-after-age-60?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

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