The Morning Call---Brutal upside (technical) risk

 

The Morning Call

 

8/13/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/soft-cpi-supports-relief-rally-stocks-wild-day-ethereum-bonds-dollar

 

Note: the S&P closed at a new high, resetting the uptrend off its April low. I closed out my S&P short.

 

Tuesday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Brutal upside risk.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/2020-vibes-bare-positioning-brutal-upside-risk

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 10.9 % while purchase applications were up 1.4%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                          The July budget deficit was $292 billion versus estimates of $260 billion.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-deficit-explodes-july-despite-jump-tariff-revenue-government-spending-soars

 

                        International

 

July Japanese PPI was up 0.2%, in line; July German PPI fell 0.1% versus +0.2%; July German CPI was up 0.3%, in line.

 

July Japanese YoY machine tool orders increased 3.6% versus expectations of 0.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Key indicators show mixed picture for economy.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-business-cycle-profile-shows-mixed-picture-for-key-indicators/

 

                          A detailed look at yesterday’s CPI number.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-consumer-inflation-transition.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              A look at the policies advocated by the new Fed appointee.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-trojan-horses/?src=news

 

              The line between monetary and fiscal policy has blurred.

              https://www.ft.com/content/07656692-89fa-4e06-9f1b-e9cac42dbb41

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Five ways to halt the onrushing deficit crisis.

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/08/08/economic-fiscal-debt-crisis/

 

              The US marches towards state capitalism.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-marches-toward-state-capitalism-with-american-characteristics-f75cafa8?st=LxAssY

 

              A must read interview with US Treasury secretary Bessent.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-08-11/treasury-secretary-bessent-on-tariffs-deficits-trump-s-economic-plan?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Tariffs

 

              Another defense of Trump’s tariff policies.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/08/12/in_economics_the_unseen_is_much_more_important_than_the_seen_1128146.html

 

Here is the administration’s reply to the court that is ruling on the constitutionality of Trump’s tariff.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/that-tariff-power-we-just-invented-cant-live-without-it/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=blog-post&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=top-bar-latest&utm_term=second

 

            Geopolitics

           

              Ukrainian support for war collapses.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukrainian-populations-support-war-effort-collapses-poll-shows-ahead-putin-trump-summit

 

              Zelensky softens stance on giving up territory.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-preparing-new-offensive-after-trump-meeting-zelensky-says-ukraine-softens-stance

 

     Investing

 

            If you own a ‘buffer’ fund, you need to read this analysis.

            https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/There-Aint-No-Such-Thing-as-a-Free-Lunch

 

            The stock market may want a rate cut, but the bond vigilantes may not.

            Bond Vigilantes May Be Lurking On Easying Path

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $1.03/share quarterly dividend

 

What I am reading today

 

            How a Georgia county used bitcoin to secure election results.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/how-georgia-county-put-its-election-results-bitcoin-and-why-it-will-transform-election

 

 

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