The Morning Call--Curb your enthusiasm

 

The Morning Call

 

1/8/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-bonds-big-tech-battered-trumpnado-strikes

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 3.7% while purchase applications were down 7.0%.

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 201,000 versus expectations of 218,000.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

November job openings (JOLTS report) totaled 8.2 million versus forecasts of 7.7 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/07/job-openings-jolts-november-2024

 

The December ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 54.1 versus projections of 53.3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/07/ism-services-pmi-expanded-december-2024

The December ADP private payroll report showed an increase of 122,000 jobs versus estimates of a rise of 140,000.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/labor-market-miasma-jobless-claims-best-10-months-adp-worst-4-months

 

                        International

 

November EU PPI was reported at +1.6% versus predictions of +1.5%; the December consumer confidence index was -14.5, in line; the December economic sentiment index was 93.7 versus 95.6; the December industrial sentiment index was -14.1 versus -11.7; the December services sentiment index was 5.9, in line.

 

November German factory orders fell 5.4% versus consensus of 0.0%; November retail sales were down 0.6% versus +0.5%.

                         

                        Other

 

                          Latest Q4 nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-growth-still-on-track-to-slow-after-strong-q3-rise/

 

Dollar surges on reports Trump is considering declaring a national emergency to justify tariffs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-surges-cnn-report-trump-considering-national-emergency-declaration-justify-new

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Economic policy uncertainty.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/01/us-economic-policy-uncertainty-buckle-up

 

            Inflation

 

              Eurozone inflation climbs further above target.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/eurozone-inflation-climbs-further-above-ecb-target-3176fe15?mod=economy_lead_story

 

    Investing

 

            Times, they are a’changing.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-times-are-still-a-changin/?src=news

 

            Curb your enthusiasm.

            "Curb Your Enthusiasm" In 2025 - RIA

 

            The US stock market has never been more concentrated.

            https://www.ft.com/content/1211fb52-2c80-4d82-ac70-c0761242ff9e?shareType=nongift

 

            Credit markets are signaling a warning for equities.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/credit-markets-signal-warning-for-a-relentless-equity-rally?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Bond bulls beware.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-bulls-beware-bloodbaths-not-over-quite-yet

 

            Bond vigilantes put 5% in the crosshairs.

            Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

 

            Bitcoin is not a nothing, but not a something either.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-07/bitcoin-s-not-a-nothing-but-it-s-not-a-something-either?srnd=homepage-americas

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            UPS closes on acquisition.

            UPS closes on the acquisition of Frigo-Trans and BPL (UPS:NYSE) | Seeking Alpha

 

MSC Industrial Direct press release (NYSE:MSM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 beats by $0.13.

Revenue of $928.5M (-2.7% Y/Y) beats by $23.91M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Another perspective on the damage drinking has on your health.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/01/bottoms-up.php#disqus_thread

                       

            Why the Mayan civilization didn’t collapse.

            New research challenges the idea that the Maya civilization collapsed

 

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