The Morning Call---Smokin'

 

The Morning Call

 

1/10/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            How prescient are the January indicators?

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-ways-bulls-believe-that-january-can-tell-the-stock-markets-future-4a6cd7c4?st=fZtvui

 

            Key levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/key-levels-recession-dilemma-and-snap-risk

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

December nonfarm payrolls grew by 256,000 versus estimates of 160.000; the December unemployment rate was 4.1% versus 4.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scorching-hot-payrolls-smash-estimates-us-unexpectedly-adds-massive-256k-jobs-december

 

                        International

 

November Japanese household spending was up 0.4% versus predictions   of down 0.9%; the November leading economic indicators came in at 107.0 versus 107.2.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              Monitoring reinflation risk in five charts.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/monitoring-us-reflation-risk-in-five-charts/

 

              Expected inflation and the dollar.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/01/making-sense-if-possible-of-expected-inflation-and-the-dollar

 

              Used vehicle prices putting upward pressure on CPI.

                https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/08/why-used-vehicle-prices-may-put-upward-pressure-on-cpi-after-having-been-a-powerful-contributor-to-cooling-inflation/

 

            China

 

              China deflation.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/01/chinas-government-bond-market-sounding-loud-deflationary-alarm-is-the-japanification-china-has-warded-off-finally-arriving.html

 

                          2025 nowcasts for Chinese GDP.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/01/rhodium-group-another-estimate-of-chinese-gdp-growth

 

    Investing

 

Recovery time following a bull market peak---notice how long it takes even accounting for inflation and dividend reinvestment. That is why ‘buy and hold’ is a young man’s game.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/09/four-bear-market-recoveries-q1-2025

 

            Stocks are more expensive than they used to be---for a reason.

            https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/stocks-are-more-expensive-than-they-used-to-be

 

            Soaring bankruptcies bode ill for stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soaring-bankruptcies-bode-ill-us-stocks

 

            New era for crypto?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/nation-state-adoption-drive-bitcoin-growth-fidelity-digital-sees-new-era-crypto-2025

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            A looming demographic cliff.

            https://www.npr.org/2025/01/08/nx-s1-5246200/demographic-cliff-fewer-college-students-mean-fewer-graduates

 

            Trump and why he would (could) buy Greenland.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/erik-prince-reveals-trump-was-closer-buying-greenland-previously-known

 

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