The Morning Call---More discussion on DeepSeek

 

The Morning Call

 

1/29/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/chatccp-chaos-day-2-dead-cat-bounce-or-pain-over

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 2.0% while purchase applications were down 0.4%.

 

The January Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -4 versus forecasts of -8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/28/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-soft-january-2025

 

The January consumer confidence index was 104.1 versus predictions of 105.6.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/28/consumer-confidence-falls-further-january-2025

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese consumer confidence index was reported at 35.3 versus forecasts of 36.6; the February German consumer confidence index was -22.4 versus -20.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Reshoring American industry is possible.

                          https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-reshoring-american-industry-is

 

                          Recession probability drops to 27%.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/01/us-recession-probability-plunges-to-27.html

 

                          Trends in new home versus existing home sales.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/27/inventory-of-new-completed-single-family-houses-for-sale-spikes-to-highest-since-2007-builders-prop-up-sales-with-lower-prices-bigger-incentives-smaller-houses/

 

                          Delinquency rates for commercial properties increased in Q4 2024.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/mba-delinquency-rates-for-commercial.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Upside risks to inflation.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/upside-risks-to-inflation/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump repeats universal tariff threat.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/a-great-tariff-experiment-as-trump-repeats-threat-of-universal-tariffs/

 

            DeepSeek

 

              DeepSeek deep-sixes bullish exuberance.

              DeepSeek DeepSinks Bullish Exuberance - RIA

 

              Nassim Taleb on Nvidia’s rout.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-28/black-swan-s-taleb-warns-nvidia-rout-is-hint-of-what-s-to-come?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              More words of caution.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/does-china-ai-threaten-us-tech-dominance/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/should-you-buy-the-nvda-dip?post=479584

 

              Ray Dalio on the AI bubble.

              https://www.ft.com/content/eef8dbc9-bd04-4502-bdc2-1092aa4251b2

 

             Goldman on the DeepSeek disruption.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-correction-versus-market-correction-goldman-macro-strategist-chatccps-impact-fed

 

             Nobody knows anything, DeepSeek edition.

             https://ritholtz.com/2025/01/nobody-knows-anything-deepseek/

             

     Investing

 

            Forget DeepSeek, these are the factors that could bring the Market down.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-deepseek-these-are-factors-could-really-take-rally-down

 

            How important is it?

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/01/28/right-here-right-now/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.35 beats by $0.05.

Revenue of $5B (+4.8% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The case against birthright citizenship.

            https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/the-case-against-birthright-citizenship

 

            Can we measure ‘soft power’?

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/can-we-measure-soft-power

 

                        A potential problem AI could create in the financial system.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/worlds-worst-financial-catastrophe-could-happen-soon

 

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