The Morning Call
1/31/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-record-high-bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bid
The latest from Goldman’s funds flow guru.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-sees-strong-demand-global-dip-alpha
And its trading
desk.
Gold: vacuum above
2790.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-vacuum-above-2790
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
December pending home sales fell 5.5% versus
consensus of 0.0%.
December personal
income was up 0.4%, in line; December personal spending was up 0.7%, versus
+0.5%.
The December PCE price index was up 0.2%, in line.
International
The December Japanese
unemployment rate was 2.4% versus forecasts of 2.5%; December flash industrial
production was up 0.3%, in line; December retail sales fell 0.7% versus +0.1%;
December YoY housing starts were down 2.5% versus -3.9%; December YoY
construction orders were up 8.1% versus
+5.5%; January YoY CPI was up 2.5%, in line; ex food and energy, it was up 1.0%
versus +1.2%.
December German
retail sales fell 1.6% versus projections of +0.2%; January CPI was -0.2%, in
line; the January unemployment rate was 6.2%, also in line.
Other
Inside yesterday’s GDP number as well as a
look ahead.
EU economy stalled in Q4.
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth
Overnight
News
President Trump’s
advisers are considering several offramps to avoid enacting the universal
tariffs on Mexico and Canada that he had pledged, even as he reiterated
Thursday that the tariffs are coming. Some officials are now concerned about
using emergency powers for tariffs after a federal judge earlier this week
temporarily blocked a White House Office of Management and Budget memo that
sought to freeze federal grants and loans. WSJ
US President Trump said China is going to end
up paying a tariff as well.
Fiscal
Policy
Trumpian economic statecraft.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-picture-behind-great-game-global-trade-played-trump
The fallacy of taxing the rich.
https://www.betonit.ai/p/the-rich-and-the-cheap
Tariffs
Trump threatens 25% tariffs on Mexico and
Canada.
Investing
The bond market is
flashing a warning.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/opinion/trump-inflation-bonds-debt-yield.html
Animal spirits
risk running too high.
https://www.ft.com/content/4d3eed1b-22aa-437f-8337-460f00e35363
Something unusual
is occurring in the gold vaults in Manhattan.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
AbbVie press
release (NYSE:ABBV): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.16 misses by $0.10.
Revenue of
$15.1B (+5.6% Y/Y) beats by $270M.
Exxon
Mobil press
release (NYSE:XOM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.67 beats
by $0.12.
Revenue of
$83.43B (-1.1% Y/Y) misses by $3.77B.
Exxon Mobil
(NYSE:XOM) declared $0.99/share
quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Canadian
National Railway press
release (NYSE:CNI): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
C$1.82 misses by C$0.10.
Revenue of
C$4.36B (-2.5% Y/Y) beats by C$10M.
What
I am reading today
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/quotation-of-the-day-4906.html
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