Friday, January 31, 2025

The Morning Call---The latest from Goldman's trading desk

 

The Morning Call

 

1/31/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/gold-hits-record-high-bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bid

 

            The latest from Goldman’s funds flow guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-sees-strong-demand-global-dip-alpha

 

            And its trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/macro-conditions-still-perfect-gold-hits-record-high-goldman-fed-post-mortem-premium

 

            Gold: vacuum above 2790.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-vacuum-above-2790

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          December pending home sales fell 5.5% versus consensus of 0.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/30/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-december-2024

 

December personal income was up 0.4%, in line; December personal spending was up 0.7%, versus +0.5%.

 

                         The December PCE price index was up 0.2%, in line.

                         https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/headline-pce-inflation-continues-rise-savings-rate-revised-down-again

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese unemployment rate was 2.4% versus forecasts of 2.5%; December flash industrial production was up 0.3%, in line; December retail sales fell 0.7% versus +0.1%; December YoY housing starts were down 2.5% versus -3.9%; December YoY construction orders  were up 8.1% versus +5.5%; January YoY CPI was up 2.5%, in line; ex food and energy, it was up 1.0% versus +1.2%.

 

December German retail sales fell 1.6% versus projections of +0.2%; January CPI was -0.2%, in line; the January unemployment rate was 6.2%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Inside yesterday’s GDP number as well as a look ahead.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/robust-underlying-growth-despite-us-gdp-disappointment?post=479933

 

                          EU economy stalled in Q4.

                          https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth

           

            Overnight News

 

President Trump’s advisers are considering several offramps to avoid enacting the universal tariffs on Mexico and Canada that he had pledged, even as he reiterated Thursday that the tariffs are coming. Some officials are now concerned about using emergency powers for tariffs after a federal judge earlier this week temporarily blocked a White House Office of Management and Budget memo that sought to freeze federal grants and loans. WSJ

 

  US President Trump said China is going to end up paying a tariff as well.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trumpian economic statecraft.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-picture-behind-great-game-global-trade-played-trump

 

              The fallacy of taxing the rich.

              https://www.betonit.ai/p/the-rich-and-the-cheap

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump threatens 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-rocks-canada-and-mexico-reiterates-threat-impose-25-tariffs-over-fentanyl

 

    Investing

 

            The bond market is flashing a warning.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/opinion/trump-inflation-bonds-debt-yield.html

 

            Animal spirits risk running too high.

            https://www.ft.com/content/4d3eed1b-22aa-437f-8337-460f00e35363

 

            Something unusual is occurring in the gold vaults in Manhattan.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/something-extraordinary-taking-place-gold-vaults-below-manhattan

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

AbbVie press release (NYSE:ABBV): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.16 misses by $0.10.

Revenue of $15.1B (+5.6% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

 

Exxon Mobil press release (NYSE:XOM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.67 beats by $0.12.

Revenue of $83.43B (-1.1% Y/Y) misses by $3.77B.

 

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) declared $0.99/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Canadian National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.82 misses by C$0.10.

Revenue of C$4.36B (-2.5% Y/Y) beats by C$10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/quotation-of-the-day-4906.html

 

 

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