The Morning Call--The latest from Goldman's trading desk

 

The Morning Call

 

1/7/25

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-shrug-trump-tariff-headline-roulette-bitcoin-jumps-dollar-dumps

 

            Five charts to watch in 2025.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/the-top-five-charts-to-watch-for-2025/

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-spots-significant-warning-sign-investors-why-hedge-funds-are-suddenly-shorting

 

            The VIX: calm before the seasonal storm.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-calm-seasonal-surge

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          November factory orders fell 0.4% versus estimates of -0.3%.

 

The November trade balance was -$78.2 billion versus predictions of -$78.0 billion.

                       

The December services PMI came in at 56.8 versus consensus of 58.5; the composite PMI was 55.4 versus 56.6.

 

                        International

 

The November EU unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line; the December CPI was +0.4% versus +0.2%; the December construction PMI was 42.9 versus 45.0.

 

The December German construction PMI was 37.8, in line; the December UK construction PMI was 53.3 versus 54.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          December heavy truck sales were down 10% YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/heavy-truck-sales-decreased-10-yoy-in.html

 

                          The US consumer is in good shape.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/10-charts-showing-the-us-consumer-is-in-excellent-shape/

 

                          The status of the dollar as a global reserve currency.

   https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/05/status-of-us-dollar-as-global-reserve-currency-usd-share-drops-to-30-year-low-central-banks-pile-on-other-currencies-gold/

 

 

                          Your happy new year depends on Trump and inflation.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-06/your-happy-new-year-depends-on-trump-and-inflation?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Quantifying the impact of the Fed’s rate cuts.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/quantifying-the-impact-of-the-fed-cutting-100-basis-points-since-september/

 

              Will the Fed raise rates in 2025?

              https://www.morningstar.com/markets/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-2025

 

              Don’t focus to heavily on Fed rate cuts.

              https://www.tker.co/p/fed-rate-cuts-focus-misguided-stock-market

 

            Coronavirus

 

              The 2024 year end coronavirus dashboard.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/2024-year-end-coronavirus-dashboard.html

 

    Investing

 

            Investigating simple formulaic investing.

            https://alphaarchitect.com/2025/01/formulaic-investing/

 

            The latest from John Mauldin.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/01/06/controversial-start

 

            Risk-on sentiment prevails for 2025 debut.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-prevails-for-2025s-debut-fueled-by-us-stocks/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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