The Morning Call
1/24/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/trump-tanks-crude-bitcoin-blasts-stargate-surge-stalls
Tech melt up in
four charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-hedge-fund-honcho-highlights-tech-melt-4-discrete-charts
Getting late to
chase the squeeze.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/getting-late-chase-squeeze
Gold’s overbought frenzy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-overbought-frenzy-smart-traders-are-turning-options
Silver, not so
much.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-silver-charts-we-are-watching
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The January Kansas
City Fed manufacturing index came in at -5 versus estimates of -7.
International
December Japanese CPI was up 0.6% versus
predictions of +0.4%.
The January EU
consumer confidence index was -14.2, in line; the January UK consumer
confidence index was -22 versus -18.
The January Japanese
flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus forecasts of 49.7; the flash services
PMI was 52.7 versus 51.1; the flash composite PMI was 51.1 versus 51.0; the January
German flash manufacturing PMI was 44.1 versus 42.9; the flash services PMI was
52.5 versus 51.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.1 versus 48.2; the January EU flash
manufacturing PMI was 46.1 versus 45.2; the flash services PMI was 52.5 versus
51.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.1 versus 48.2; the January UK flash
manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus forecasts of 47.0; the flash services PMI was
51.2 versus 50.9; the flash composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.0.
Other
Productivity and employment.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/01/productivity-demand-and-manufacturing-employment
Auto loan delinquencies rates.
Survey of economists on 2025 outlook.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/economists-predictions-survey-charts-2025-a919c800?mod=economy_lead_pos3
What the latest jobless claims number means
for the unemployment rate.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/jobless-claims-seasonality-and.html
Overnight
News
- The US House Republican committee chairs pitched in a private
meeting what could add up to between USD 2.5-3 trillion of spending cuts
and budget savings to fund Republicans’ reconciliation package, according
to Punchbowl News. The Energy and Commerce Committee is eyeing up to USD
2tln of cuts, including per capita caps for Medicaid. Energy-related cuts,
such as rolling back tailpipe rules and fuel efficiency benchmarks for
cars and light trucks, known as CAFE standards, were also part of the
committee’s pitch. The Education and Workforce panel believes it has up to
USD 500bln in cuts, largely through targeting student loans. The House
Agriculture Committee is targeting between USD 100bln and USD 250bln in
cuts. Some would impact SNAP, aka food stamps. The Transportation and
Infrastructure panel’s up to USD 26bln in savings would include raising
tonnage duties for ships, and electric vehicles fees that would go into
the Highway Trust Fund. Ultimately, each and every cut will have to get
approved by every Republican member in the House - any GOP member could
kill the bill, at least until early April.
- Trump reiterated that he will impose “massive” tariffs on Russia
and “big” sanctions if it doesn’t settle the war in Ukraine. Trump also
said he’s had “good, friendly” talks with Xi Jinping. BBG
Monetary
Policy
Pimco on Fed policy.
https://www.ft.com/content/740b34da-a02c-4b63-9b3a-1b4069bf6ab2
Fiscal
Policy
The growth of the national debt.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-growth-of-us-national-debt-in-biden.html
Trump’s pompous economic illiteracy is scary.
Investing
Bursting the complacency
bubble.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/01/23/complacency-bubble-bursting
The bond market awaits news on inflation,
tariffs and the deficit.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/bond-market-awaits-news-on-inflation-tariffs-and-the-deficit/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
As you know, I try
to avoid political issues in this letter unless they have a direct impact on
the economy/Market. For some reason, yesterday’s news flow from the sites I normally
use included two subjects that while mostly political in nature have an impact
on how our economic system works---presidential executive orders being the most
obvious. Tariffs, immigration, DOGE will clearly affect the economy/Markets. Censorship
is less apparent though managing the reporting of economic statistics (which I have
cynically suggested in the past) would surely qualify---though as you will see,
is not the point of the article. In addition, both articles outline the guilt
of both political parties; so to the extent that these articles can be judged
as political, they at least point out the shared guilt of our entire ruling
class.
The
increasing use of the presidential executive order.
And.
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/these-restorative-executive-orders-should-not-be-necessary
Censorship and the press.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/01/rob-urie-on-being-censored-for-the-last-four-years.html
Trump
signs executive order releasing additional JFK assassination files.
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