The Morning Call---Too many bears

 

The Morning Call

 

1/17/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-bullion-bid-fedspeak-sparks-dovish-jump-rate-cut-hopes

 

            Too many bears.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/too-many-bears-time-fomo

 

            Three gold charts to be watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-gold-charts-we-are-watching-3

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

December housing starts jumped 15.8% (no misprint) versus expectations of +2.0%; building permits fell 0.7% versus -0.9%.

 

                          The January housing index came in at 47 versus consensus of 45.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/16/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-january-2024

 

                        International

 

Q4 Chinese YoY GDP growth was 5.4% versus projections of 5.0%: December industrial production was up 6.2% versus 5.4%; December retail sales were up 3.7% versus +3.5%.

 

December UK retail sales fell 0.3% versus forecasts of +0.4%; ex fuel, they were down 0.6% versus +0.1%.

 

December EU CPI was up 0.4%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Up 0.1% in December - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

 

                          Retail sales as a recession indicator.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/real-retail-sales-remain-positive-for.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump versus the bond vigilantes.

              https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/how-bond-vigilantes-could-check-trumps-power-2025-01-16/

 

              Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent thoughts on the economy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-across-board-tariffs-and-weak-dollar-what-trumps-treasury-secretary-really-wants

 

 

            Inflation

 

              The only path out of the inflation quagmire.

              https://www.creators.com/read/veronique-de-rugy/01/25/the-only-path-leading-all-the-way-out-of-our-inflation-quagmire#google_vignette

 

              Bond market premium indicates investors still worried about inflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-16-january-2025/

 

              As they should be.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doves-might-be-caught-guard-after-inflation-gods-smiled-week

 

     Investing

 

            Benjamin Graham and how to invest like a legend.

            https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/benjamin-graham-and-how-to-invest-like-a-legend/

 

            What if stocks only rise 3%?

            https://www.theretirementmanifesto.com/what-if-stocks-only-rise-3/?

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.43/share quarterly dividend, 10.3% increase from prior dividend of $0.39.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

Another great insight from Morgan Housel: the dumber the disagreement, the better the world is.

            https://collabfund.com/blog/minimum-levels-of-stress/

 

            What the LA fires mean for your insurance bill.

            https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5084605-los-angeles-wildfires-insurance-costs/

 

                        More: this article likely overstates the case, but you still get the point.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/catalyst-next-financial-crisis-homeowners-insurance

 

 

            The growing retirement crisis.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/18-incredible-statistics-about-americas-rapidly-growing-retirement-crisis-will

 

 

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