Investing for Survival

 

The Morning Call

 

1/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-gold-crypto-all-surge-higher-trump-takes-office

 

            The surprise index.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/01/market-reactions-it-is-always-about.html

 

            Gold charts worth watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-gold-bull-charts-we-are-watching

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.1% while purchase applications were up 0.6%.

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Share of mortgage forbearances declined in December.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Latest M2 growth:

 

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Trump’s policies could be disinflationary.

              https://www.ft.com/content/4e20cda4-9344-472d-ad07-b6361a21799f

 

            Tariffs

 

              Quote of the day.

              https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/quotation-of-the-day-4896.html

 

              Will Trump tariffs help or hurt efforts to lower inflation.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-trumps-tariffs-help-or-hurt-the-effort-to-tame-inflation/

 

              The cost of tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-would-push-core-inflation-14-higher

 

            Executive Orders

 

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/overview-trumps-day-one-executive-actions

 

    Investing

 

            Lots of foreigners buying lots of US stocks and bonds.

            Foreigners Buying Lots Of US Dollars To Buy Lots Of US Stocks & Bonds

 

Are expectations for 2025 too high? I don’t often disagree with Lance Roberts. Even in this case, it is only a partial disagreement. The thesis in this article is that valuations are too high; and in the case of the Magnificent Seven, I couldn’t agree more.  The problem is (as has been pointed out countless times by countless Market observers) those seven stocks are what have caused Market valuations to be so high. How many articles have there been in the last year pointing out that the Magnificent Seven have accounted for the lion’s share of the Market’s advance and that the other 493 (in the S&P) have been laggards?

 

I think that is about to change. It is time for those 493 to play catch up. I believe that there is a decent chance that 2025 could see the Magnificent Seven doing nothing or even decline where areas of the Market that have dramatically lagged improve. Of course, there is the possibility that the Mag 7 could sell off, perhaps significantly and the rest of the Market remain unchanged or decline modestly. As you can tell by my recent actions, I am ready to accept that risk. To be clear, all my recent purchases have been companies/stocks that were punished in 2024; so selection is critical.

            Are Return Expectations For 2025 Too High? - RIA

 

            The latest from John Mauldin.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/01/21/storm-possible

 

            Trump’s effect on crypto.

            https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-effect-crypto-undeniable-will-lure-investment-coinbase-ceo-says-davos-2025-01-21/

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            2025 winners of World Sports Photography.

            https://www.worldsportsphotographyawards.com/winners-and-shortlists-per-year/winners

 

 

                       

 

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