The Morning Call---Slimmming down a top heavy market

 

The Morning Call

 

1/16/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/buy-all-things-soft-cpi-bullish-bank-eps-sparks-risk-rip

 

            Three bond charts to watch.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-rate-charts-we-are-watching-0

 

            The dollar: Too much, too fast?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-too-much-too-fast

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus estimates of 210,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-hit-3-year-high-despite-post-election-surge-hiring-plans

 

December retail sales rose 0.4% versus projections of +0.6%; ex autos, they were up 0.4%, in line.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-retail-sales-disappoint-december-despite-surge-auto-sales-gas-costs

 

The January Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was 44.3 (no misprint) versus consensus of -5.

           

                        International

 

The November EU trade balance was +E16.4 billion versus expectations of +E8.5b billion.

 

November UK GDP growth was +0.6% versus forecasts of +0.2%; the November trade balance was -L4.7 billion versus -L3.9 billion; November industrial production fell 0.4% versus +0.1%.

 

December Japanese PPI was up 0.3% versus predictions of +0.4%.

 

December German CPI was up 0.5% versus estimates of +0.4%.

 

                        Other

           

                          The latest Fed Beige Book doesn’t tell us anything new.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/feds-beige-book-economic-activity.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Inside Tuesday’s PPI number.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/14/ppi-inflation-accelerated-to-3-3-driven-by-core-services-ppi-4-0-both-the-worst-readings-in-nearly-2-years/

 

              Inside Wednesday’s CPI number.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/december-cpi-rebounds-in-gas-and-car.html

 

              How the CPI is constructed.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/01/15/inside-the-consumer-price-index-december-2024

 

              The effect of wildfires on the CPI.

              https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-january-15th-2025/

 

            The Financial System

 

              Potential problems in the private credit market.

              https://www.ft.com/content/62a40125-0f58-4855-b443-f3385c16a604

 

Tariffs

 

  The impact of tariffs on small businesses.

  https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/crafting-a-crisis-the-unseen-impact-of-tariffs-on-artisans-at-home/

 

     Investing

 

            Slimming down a top heavy market.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/01/15/slimming-top-heavy-market

 

            Two big risks facing investors.

            https://www.ft.com/content/13eb35f1-b82c-41a7-9804-06ec34e34e59

 

            Gold in the 21^st century.

            https://www.indexologyblog.com/2025/01/09/the-king-of-the-21st-century-wears-a-golden-crown/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            David Stockman on climate change.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/stockman-wildfires-and-hoary-hoax-burning-planet

 

 

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