The Morning Call
1/30/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
The gold miners
(GDX) rally is over. (I am Selling my position this morning)
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 207,000
versus estimates of 220,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/initial-jobless-claims-tumble-back-near-multi-decade-lows
Q4 GDP growth was
2.3% versus projections of 2.6%; Q4 core PCE prices were up 2.2% versus +2.5%
Q4 real consumer spending was up 4.2% versus +2.9%.
International
Q4 German flash GDP growth was -0.2% versus consensus
of -0.1%.
Q4 EU flash GDP
growth was 0.0% versus expectations of +0.1%: the December unemployment rate
was 6.3%, in line; the January consumer confidence index was -14.2, in line;
the January economic sentiment index was 95.2 versus 94.1; the January industrial
sentiment index was -12.9 versus -13.8; the January services sentiment index
was 6.9 versus 6.0.
Other
New home glut in south and west.
Measuring consumer attitudes.
Record new trade deficit.
Monetary
Policy
The FOMC wrapped
up its January meeting, leaving rates unchanged---totally expected. The most
notable item in its presser was the failure to mention progress on inflation;
and that was followed in Chair Powell’s comments stating that basically the Fed
was going to do nothing until it figured out the implications of Trump
policies.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/fomc-statement-no-change-to-fed-funds.html
The 10 year Treasury
yield rose slightly.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
The stock market
declined slightly.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Wall Street’s reaction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-responds-feds-hawkish-pause
Trump’s reaction.
Trump Slams Hawkish Fed
For 'Failing To Stop The Problem They Created' | ZeroHedge
ECB cuts rates as expected.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/disinflation-process-well-track-ecb-cuts-rates-expected
Fiscal
Policy
A study showing
that the longer the maturity structure of a country’s debt, the greater the
odds it will reach unsustainable levels.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/politicians-care-about-some-debt
The legality of Trump
‘impounding’ federal expenditures will be decided by the Court.
Trump freezes foreign aid fraud.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/jim-bovard-trump-freezes-foreign-aid-frauds
Inflation
The perfect storm
in insurance. The end result may be as described but the California wildfires
(the effect) are not caused by climate change. They were the result of poor
conservation practices (not clearing underbrush) and poor municipal management
(water supplies). Maybe the insurance companies should be suing the State for
negligence.
https://econofact.org/the-perfect-storm-in-home-insurance
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, 2.2%
increase from prior dividend of $5.10.
C.H. Robinson
Worldwide press
release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.21 beats by $0.10.
Revenue of
$4.18B (-0.9% Y/Y) misses by $260M.
Microsoft press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q2 GAAP
EPS of $3.23 beats by $0.13.
Revenue
of $69.6B (+12.2% Y/Y) beats by $790M.
Mastercard Press Release (NYSE:MA): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$3.82 beats by $0.13.
Revenue
of $7.5B (+15.4% Y/Y) beats by $120M,
or 16% on a currency-neutral basis.
Sherwin
Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.09 beats by $0.03.
Revenue
of $5.3B (+1.0% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.29 beats by $0.01.
Revenue
of $5.1B (+1.6% Y/Y) beats by $50M.
UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.75 beats by $0.22.
Revenue
of $25.3B (+1.6% Y/Y) misses by $120M.
What
I am reading today
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