The Morning Call--The Market is closed but there is plenty to stew over

 

The Morning Call

 

1/9/25

 

The stock market is closed today.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/tech-wrecked-rate-rout-wreaks-havoc-crude-crypto-crumble

 

            Retail investors blowing out of stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-retail-investors-are-blowing-out-stocks-which-incredibly-rare-early-year

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November consumer credit debt fell $7.5 billion versus forecasts of +$10.5 billion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/klarnageddon-consumer-credit-card-debt-unexpectedly-plummets-rate-signaling-deep-recession

 

                        International

 

November Japanese YoY cash earnings rose 3.0% versus projections of +2.7%.

 

November EU retail sales were up 0.1% versus estimates of +0.4%.

 

The November German trade balance was E19.7 billion versus expectations of E14.8 billion; November industrial production was up 1.5% versus +0.5%.

 

The December Chinese CPI was flat, in line; the December YoY PPI was down 2.3%, also in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The labor market is tightening.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/07/labor-market-dynamics-retighten-job-openings-jump-again-fed-faces-scenario-of-solid-job-market-re-accelerating-inflation/

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

Minutes from last FOMC meeting show participants suddenly worried about inflation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-9

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Another bad decision.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/could-this-be-the-nail-in-us-steels-coffin-nippon-4bfb0c14?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos1

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on the Campbell’s tomato soup indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-price-history-of-campbells-tomato.html

 

              Are Treasury yields flashing a warning on inflation?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/are-treasury-yields-flashing-a-warning-sign-for-inflation/#more-23341

 

            Recession

 

              Heavy truck sales sound a warning.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/truck-sales-sound-warning.html

 

            China

 

              Markets sound alarm over deflationary spiral in China.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-07/china-investors-sound-alarm-over-japan-style-deflation-as-yields-hit-record-low?srnd=homepage-americas

 

    Investing

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/price-to-book-ratio-for-the-sp-500-at-all-time-highs/

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/01/08/yet-more-pressing

 

            Howard Marks on whether or not we are in a bubble.

            https://www.ft.com/content/0886a8cc-e720-4412-952d-908da9d56f94

 

            The last time yields surged like this, equity prices were down.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-08/last-time-bond-yields-surged-like-that-stock-markets-sank?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Counterpoint:

            Bond Yields Have Normalized

 

            More:

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-margaritas-do-we-need-extra-juice

 

            The bond yields breakout is more than inflation.

             https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-08/bond-yield-breakout-is-much-more-than-inflation?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Is it Fed policy or Trump policy?

            https://mishtalk.com/economics/bonds-hammered-is-it-fed-policy-trump-policy-or-both/

 

            In addition, credit spreads are sending a warning signal.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-spreads-send-warning-stock-investors

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

            Paychex writes a fat check for Paycor.

            Paychex Writes A Fat Check For Paycor HCM (NASDAQ:PAYX) | Seeking Alpha

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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