The Morning Call
1/28/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
More selling to come?
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
The November Case
Shiller home price index fell 0.1%, in line.
December durable
goods orders fell 2.2% versus expectations of +0.6%; ex transportation, they
were up 0.3% versus +0.4%.
December new home
sales were up 3.6% versus consensus of -3.5%; December building permits were down
0.7%, in line.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/in-december-theme-for-new-homes-was.html
The January Dallas
Fed manufacturing index was 14.1 versus projections of 4.0.
International
Other
The impact of
undocumented workers on the wages of native born residents.
More problems for
the commercial real estate industry.
Hotel occupancy rates up 6.7% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/hotels-occupancy-rate-increased-67-year.html
Overnight
News
Trump spoke after
the Mon close and said “in the very near future” he would be placing tariffs on computer chips,
semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper.
Trump said he
wants universal tariffs much larger than 2.5% and has a tariff level in mind
but had not set it yet, which followed an earlier report in FT that Treasury
Secretary Bessent is pushing for a gradual 2.5% universal tariffs plan in which
the 2.5% levy would move higher by the same amount each month.
Trump said he will
work with Congress on a plan to secure the borders and that they need a massive
increase in funding for border security, while he will work with Congress on
tax cuts and must permanently extend tax cuts previously passed under the Trump
administration. Trump reiterated "drill baby drill" and said he will
give fast approval to anyone building a plant for electric generation. Trump
also stated that tariffs will be placed on computer chips in the near future
and he will place tariffs on producers of pharmaceuticals, while he added that
steel and other industries will be considered for tariffs and tariffs will also
be placed on aluminum and copper. Furthermore, he said if you want to stop
placing the tariffs, companies need to build plants in the US and it is good
that companies in China have come up with a faster method of artificial
intelligence whereby Chinese startup DeepSeek should be a wake-up call.
Monetary
Policy
Will Trump’s ‘demands’ influence Fed policy?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-trump-factor-influence-markets-and-the-fed-this-week/
Update on M2.
Tariffs
Understanding ‘comparative advantage.’
https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/trump-has-no-comparative-advantage-at-understanding-trade.html
DeepSeek
Nvidia responses to DeepSeek announcement.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/nvidia-openais-sam-altman-respond-deepseek-developments
Goldman on the DeepSeek shock.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-goldman-trading-deepseek-shock
More:
Bernstein on DeepSeek.
The bulls mount their defense.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bulls-mount-their-defense
Investing
Gold glitters.
https://asiatimes.com/2025/01/gold-glitters-at-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/
Curb your
enthusiasm. Part 2.
https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/maybe-the-only-chart-you-need-to-understand-2025
And get ready for
higher rates.
Expect more market
volatility.
Beware of the
narrative.
https://www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-stories-we-tell
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Trading
as warfare.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/01/trading-as-warfare.html
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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