The Morning Call--Are rate cuts over?

 

The Morning Call

 

1/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/big-caps-bullion-rip-bitcoin-bonds-dip-trump-trip-begins

 

            Fear of materially underperforming.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/shorts-get-crushed-fomu-takes-over

 

            Sentiment is bearish.

            Sentiment Remains Remarkably Bearish, Which Is Bullish

 

            And corporate buyback blackout ends tomorrow.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/guess-whos-back-2

 

            But the VIX is near lows.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vvix-whispering-warnings

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 223,000 versus expectations of 220,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-jump-one-month-high

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

The December leading economic indicators fell 0.1% versus forecasts of 0.0%.

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese trade balance was +Y130.9 billion versus projections of -Y55 billion.

 

The Q1 UK business optimism index came in at -47 versus consensus of -30; the Q1 industrial trends orders index was -34, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          December architecture billings declined---again.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/01/aia-architecture-billings-end-year-on.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Are rate cuts over?

              https://www.ft.com/content/c349d8bf-658f-4bb5-bc61-3fef9d97869a

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              How government debt could hamstring Trump’s agenda.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/us/politics/trump-agenda-debt-republicans.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation and the Trump agenda.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-new-administration-and-return-to.html

 

            Recession

 

              Is the yield curve predicting a recession?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/01/a-recession-is-coming-yield-curve-indication

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs aren’t the answer.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-tariffs-arent-the-answer/?src=news

 

              The wisdom of imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-renews-threat-of-25-percent-tariffs-on-canada-and-mexico/

 

              What the American people believe about new tariffs.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/01/the-american-people-on-the-incipient-tariffs

 

              And what Jamie Dimon believes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/get-over-it-dimon-backs-trump-tariff-good-national-security

 

    Investing

 

            S&P dividend projections for 2025.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            In praise of diversification.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/01/22/investing-is-hard/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Amazons were more than a myth.

            The Real Amazons: Separating Fact from Fiction

 

 

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/quotation-of-the-day-4897.html

 

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