Wednesday, January 15, 2025

The Morning Call--Becoming more tactically bearish

 

The Morning Call

 

1/15/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bitcoin-bullion-bid-bear-market-bullish-sentiment-continues-stocks

 

            From Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-final-thoughts-ahead-most-important-cpi-print-long-time

 

            Market dislocations too big to ignore.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/market-dislocations-too-big-ignore

 

            Tick pattern.

            https://markettells.com/2025/01/14/tick-pattern/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications soared 33.3% (not a misprint) while purchase applications were up 26.9%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

The December budget deficit was $87 billion versus projections of $75 billion.

 

December CPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.3%; core CPI was up 0.2%, in line.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/consumer-prices-soared-over-21-under-biden

 

The January NY Fed manufacturing index was -12.6 versus predictions of +3.0.

 

                        International

 

                          November EU industrial production rose 0.2% versus estimates of +0.3%.

 

December Japanese machine tool orders were up 11.2% versus expectations of +3.0%.

 

December UK CPI came in at +0.3% versus consensus of +0.4%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.5%.

 

2024 German GDP contracted 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Updated Q4 nowcasts.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-on-track-to-post-2-plus-growth/

 

                          PPI joins the parade of yellow flags.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/producer-prices-join-parade-of-yellow.html

 

                          Not too cold; not too hot.

                          Not Too Cold, Not Too Hot

 

            Tariffs

 

As you know, I have been very critical of Trump’s new proposed tariff regime. This is an article from an economist that I respect provides some sound justification for increasing tariffs---assuming they are implemented along the lines detailed in the article. While I am not totally convinced, I think that the points made bear consideration.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/01/13/some-basics-about-u-s-tariffs-and-what-trumps-new-economic-team-said-about-tariffs/

                     

            China

 

China’s central bank: stuck between supporting the economy and fighting deflation.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/chinas-central-bank-reiterates-easing-pledges-amid-policy-dilemmas-1f88ac61?mod=economy_lead_story

 

   Investing

 

              Good news is good news.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-good-news-is-good-news-3/?src=news

 

              Becoming more tactically bearish.

              Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase - RIA

 

              Are valuations too high or is it different this time?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/666-times-thanks-playing

 

              The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-tightening-financial-conditions-just-starting-cuts-resume-h2-2025

 

              Asset managers turn more defensive.

              https://www.ft.com/content/1b219cb4-8779-4d4e-bfd8-5f7c6c0116cf

 

              The latest from Howard Marks.

              https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch

 

              The best and worst of times to be an investor.

              https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/01/14/it-was-the-best-of-times-it-was-the-worst-of-times-to-be-an-investor/

 

              Ten breakthrough technologies.

              https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/03/1109178/10-breakthrough-technologies-2025/

 

              Pain is coming for emerging markets.

              https://www.ft.com/content/93741af5-3f31-4136-9e9b-3da34a659db5

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $11.93 beats by $0.71.

Revenue of $5.68B (+22.7% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/quotation-of-the-day-4889.html

 

            Aphrodite and the ancients attitude about love and desire.

            What the cult of Aphrodite reveals about ancient attitudes towards love—and desire

           

 

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