The Morning Call
1/15/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
From Goldman’s
trading desk.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-final-thoughts-ahead-most-important-cpi-print-long-time
Market dislocations
too big to ignore.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/market-dislocations-too-big-ignore
Tick pattern.
https://markettells.com/2025/01/14/tick-pattern/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications soared 33.3% (not a misprint) while purchase applications were up
26.9%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.
The December
budget deficit was $87 billion versus projections of $75 billion.
December CPI was
up 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.3%; core CPI was up 0.2%, in line.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/consumer-prices-soared-over-21-under-biden
The January NY Fed
manufacturing index was -12.6 versus predictions of +3.0.
International
November EU industrial production rose 0.2%
versus estimates of +0.3%.
December Japanese machine
tool orders were up 11.2% versus expectations of +3.0%.
December UK CPI came
in at +0.3% versus consensus of +0.4%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.5%.
2024 German GDP contracted
0.2%, in line.
Other
Updated Q4 nowcasts.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-on-track-to-post-2-plus-growth/
PPI joins the parade of yellow flags.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/01/producer-prices-join-parade-of-yellow.html
Not too cold; not too hot.
Tariffs
As
you know, I have been very critical of Trump’s new proposed tariff regime. This
is an article from an economist that I respect provides some sound
justification for increasing tariffs---assuming they are implemented along the
lines detailed in the article. While I am not totally convinced, I think that
the points made bear consideration.
China
China’s central
bank: stuck between supporting the economy and fighting deflation.
Investing
Good news is good news.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-good-news-is-good-news-3/?src=news
Becoming more tactically bearish.
Tactically
Bearish As Risks Increase - RIA
Are valuations too high or is it different this
time?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/666-times-thanks-playing
The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.
Asset managers turn more defensive.
https://www.ft.com/content/1b219cb4-8779-4d4e-bfd8-5f7c6c0116cf
The latest from Howard Marks.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch
The best and worst of times to be an
investor.
Ten breakthrough technologies.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/01/03/1109178/10-breakthrough-technologies-2025/
Pain is coming for emerging markets.
https://www.ft.com/content/93741af5-3f31-4136-9e9b-3da34a659db5
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $11.93 beats by $0.71.
Revenue of
$5.68B (+22.7% Y/Y) beats by $100M.
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2025/01/quotation-of-the-day-4889.html
Aphrodite and the ancients attitude
about love and desire.
What
the cult of Aphrodite reveals about ancient attitudes towards love—and desire
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