The Morning Call---January CPI comes in hot

 

The Morning Call

 

2/12/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/shorts-slammed-bitcoin-battered-breakevens-burst-higher-ahead-cpi

 

            Technical update.

            Bull Bear Report - Technical Update - RIA

 

            Stocks, in general, are going nowhere.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/wheres-the-trump-stock-market-miracle?post=481766

 

            Bitcoin price at crossroads.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-price-at-a-crossroads-will-it-smash-resistance-and-climb?post=481771

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 2.3% while purchase applications were down 2.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

January CPI was up 0.5% versus forecasts of +0.3%; core CPI was +0.4% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rates-market-remains-intensely-relaxed-about-inflation

 

                        International

 

January YoY Japanese machine tool orders rose 4.7% versus projections of +1.6%.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              In senate testimony Powell signals no rush to cut rates.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/us-fed-remains-inclined-to-cut-rates-but-is-in-no-hurry?post=481765

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Federal deficit continues to grow.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/federal-deficit-up-306-billion-compared-to-same-period-last-year/

 

              DOGE investigating feds whose net worth has exploded.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-investigating-feds-whose-net-worths-have-exploded-after-samantha-power-bombshell

 

            Recession

 

              Precursor of a possible recession?

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/an-examination-of-levitation-in.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Could a tariff regime lead to recession?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-here-we-go-again/?src=news

 

              Trade wars that never happen still have costs.

              https://reason.com/2025/02/10/trade-wars-that-never-happen-still-have-costs/

 

              Although some may be worth it.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/02/trade-war-2.php

 

              EU promises quick response to Trump’s metal tariffs.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/eu-says-it-will-impose-countermeasures-against-us-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              Markets starting to act like Trump isn’t bluffing.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-11/markets-hedge-that-this-time-trump-means-it?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Geopolitics

 

              What happens next in Ukraine?

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/us-history-of-duplicity-means-impossibility-of-negotiated-settlements-including-ukraine-might-zelensky.html

 

              Arab world scrambles for response to Trump’s Gaza plan.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-11/trump-s-gaza-plan-spooks-arab-leaders-across-jordan-uae-egypt?srnd=homepage-americas

 

              Two ways of stopping Iran from getting nukes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/two-ways-stopping-iran-getting-nukes-bombs-or-written-piece-paper-trump-says

 

    Investing

 

            Lots of inflation news this week that could impact stock prices.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2025/02/inflation-week-preview-you-dont-need-to-fear-the-reaper/

 

            Goldman trader on next great rotation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-next-great-rotation-out-mag7-and-china-robots

 

            Investing in space is now profitable.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/4-minute-mile-of-space/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP738&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Why is speculation so rampant?

            https://www.ft.com/content/ec452f8e-f2ad-4c98-a150-9eff84b0c692?shareType=nongift

 

            Year to date US equities trail many global markets.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stock-market-is-middling-performer-amid-global-equities-rally/

 

            How to trade the trade war.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d5dfc114-ac9a-4452-ac22-3fcb61ab208f

 

            The perils of line item thinking.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/02/11/the-perils-of-line-item-thinking/

           

Confused?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pennytreasuryasteroid-drops

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) declares $1.27/share quarterly dividend, 2.4% increase from prior dividend of $1.24.

 

Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.82/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The pros and cons of Trump reforms to date.

            https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/the-revolution-has-begun

           

                       

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