The Morning Call---Time to be cautious

 

The Morning Call

 

2/7/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/sell-all-things-markets-stall-ahead-most-important-jobs-print-last-one

 

            More charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/shorts-smoked-retail-roars-dax-defies

 

            Retail euphoria breaks records.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/largest-buy-imbalance-history-retail-euphoria-breaks-all-records-steamrolling-bearish-hedge

           

            The latest from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-no-dip-goldman-flows-guru-sees-buybacks-big-hedge-unwinds-supportive-now

 

            The technical picture on bitcoin.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-volatility-relatively-low-despite-market-shakeouts--analysts-eye-this-crucial-level?post=481057

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

January nonfarm payrolls were up 143,000 versus forecasts of 170,000; the  January unemployment rate was 4.0% versus 4.1%

 

 

                        International

 

January Japanese household spending was up 2.3% versus predictions of -0.5%; the December leading economic indicators were 108.9 versus 108.1.

 

The December German trade balance was +E20.7 billion versus estimates of +E17 billion; December industrial production declined 2.4% versus -0.6%

 

 

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Details of the US trade deficit.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/05/trade-deficit-in-goods-worsens-to-all-time-worst-in-2024-small-surplus-in-services-improves-overall-trade-deficit-worsens-by-17/

 

            Inflation

 

              Why a firming in CPI maybe closer than you think.

              https://www.pringturner.com/why-a-firming-in-the-cpi-may-be-closer-than-you-think/

 

              Home affordability worsened in December 2024.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/new-home-affordability-crisis-worsened.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Bank of England cuts rates but warns of inflation and trade war.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/business/bank-england-interest-rates.html

 

              Bank of Japan board member calls for higher rates.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/hawkish-boj-board-member-calls-for-faster-rate-hikes-3b482771?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A lawyer looks at DOGE.

              https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1887038847629877714.html

 

              Capping credit card rates would mean less credit.

              https://www.wsj.com/opinion/josh-hawley-bernie-sanders-credit-card-interest-rate-cap-ff264932?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

 

    Investing

 

This is a really good article on the impact of a lower trade deficit on the dollar and our securities markets.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brace-worlds-single-biggest-easing-mechanism-evaporating

 

            Q4 earnings scoreboard.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/sp-500-earnings-dashboard-24q4-thursday-feb-6?post=481054

 

            Time to be cautious.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/06/returns-trump-takes-office-bullish-exuberance

 

            Though the risk-on sentiment endures.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-endures-despite-trade-uncertainty/

 

            The case for international stocks.

            https://alphaarchitect.com/2025/02/is-it-time-to-ditch-international-stocks/

 

            Update on valuations.

                  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/06/buffett-valuation-indicator-january-2025

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.77/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Analysis of build out coming in the electricity generation industry.

            https://www.construction-physics.com/p/inside-the-interconnection-queue

 

 

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