Thursday, February 20, 2025

The Morning Call--The risks in Trump's tariff policy

 

The Morning Call

 

2/20/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/stocks-bonds-surge-fed-minutes-hint-qt-taper

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 219,000 versus forecasts of 215,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/doge-deep-state-demolition-path-evident-soaring-dc-jobless-claims

 

Month to date retail chain store stores grew much more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

The February Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 18.1 versus projections of 20.0.

 

                        International

 

                          December EU construction output fell 0.1% versus estimates of -0.5%.

 

                          January German PPI was -0.1% versus expectations of +0.6%.

 

The February UK industrial trends orders index was -28 versus estimates of -30.

 

                        Other

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://dailyshotbrief.com/the-daily-shot-brief-february-19th-2025/

 

                          Part 2.

                          https://bilello.blog/2025/the-week-in-charts-2-19-25

 

                          Update on the state of the auto loan market.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/18/auto-debts-auto-loan-to-income-ratio-serious-delinquencies-for-prime-subprime-our-drunken-sailors-and-their-auto-loans-leases/

 

 

            Overnight News

 

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will announce fresh tariffs over the next month or sooner, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

 

Trump said the golden age of the US is back and it is open for business, while he will be working with Congress to pass the largest tax cuts in US history and will dramatically cut taxes with no taxes on tips and hopefully no taxes on social security. Furthermore, Trump said they are considering a new concept where they will give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and with 20% to go to paying down debt.

 

Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins told reporters Wednesday afternoon that funding negotiations with Democrats “are not going well” as lawmakers stare down a government shutdown deadline in just over three weeks.

 

The European Union is prepared to talk with the United States about reducing its 10 percent tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation aimed at avoiding a transatlantic trade war.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Latest FOMC minutes confirm Fed ‘pause’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-25

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              DOGE poised to strike Defense Department.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/incoming-doge-poised-strike-defense-department-mass-layoffs

 

              It just keeps getting worse.

              https://townhall.com/tipsheet/madelineleesman/2025/02/19/doge-shares-an-alarming-update-about-the-treasury-department-n2652425

 

              It appears that some of the DOGE headlines are misleading.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/doge-is-careless-in-operation-and-reckless-in-reporting/

           

            Recession

 

              Assessing the latest housing starts and building permits numbers.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/housing-construction-declines-further.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Expected inflation and economic policy uncertainty both up since election.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/epu-and-expected-inflation

 

            Tariffs

 

              The bazooka diplomacy of Trump tariffs.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/the-bazooka-diplomacy-of-trumps-tariffs.html

 

              The risks in Trump’s tariff policy.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/inflation-report-is-tariffying?post=481953

 

              More on Trump’s latest tariff threats.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-18/trump-says-likely-to-impose-25-tariffs-on-autos-drugs-chips?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Investing

 

            What is behind the rise in the price of gold?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-odd-happenings/?src=news

 

            How tariffs impact credit markets.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/how-tariffs-impact-credit-markets.html

 

            Update on expected S&P earnings.

            Political Calculations: Winter 2025 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

 

            Investing for security in unstable times.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/19/investing-security-unstable-times-energy-supply-chains

 

            Dealing with uncertainty.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/02/19/dealing-with-uncertainty/

 

            The good, bad and ugly in markets so far in 2025.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-bad-ugly-markets-so-far-2025

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $1.03/share quarterly dividend, 3% increase from prior dividend of $1.00.

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.79/share quarterly dividend, 10.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.71.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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