The Morning Call
2/25/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Another bitcoin
rally fails.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-price-breakout-dreams-crushed-again-whats-next?post=483867
Crypto crashing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crypto-crashing
Volatility
playbook.
Stagflation vibe getting
legs.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The February Dallas
Fed manufacturing index reading was -8.3 versus consensus of +18.0.
International
Q4 German GDP growth was -0.2%, in line.
Other
Monday in the economic charts.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/24/thoughts-revenue
Top 10% income bracket accounts for 50% of
all spending.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/top-ten-percent-account-for-half-of-all-spending-up-from-36-percent/
Overnight
News
Donald Trump’s
administration is sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and
pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China’s chip industry,
an early indication the new US president plans to expand efforts that began
under Joe Biden to limit Beijing’s technological prowess.
President Donald
Trump’s Federal Trade Commission will “vigorously” sue to block illegal
mergers, the agency’s new chairman said Monday, highlighting support for the
repeated deal challenges during the Biden era.
President Donald
Trump said on Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are "on
time and on schedule" despite efforts by the countries to beef up border
security and halt the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. ahead of a March 4
deadline.
French President
Emmanuel Macron said a truce in Ukraine could come in “weeks” after meeting
with Trump at the White House but added that a deal “must not mean a surrender
of Ukraine.”
Fed's Goolsbee
(2025 voter) said if the administration enacts policies that drive up prices,
the Fed has to take them into account by law, while he added that auto parts
suppliers have expressed concerns about tariffs and before the Fed can go back
to cutting rates, it needs more clarity. Furthermore, Goolsbee said the full
details of the administration’s policy package are still to be determined and
they have to take a wait-and-see posture.
Fiscal
Policy
John Mauldin on increasing federal revenues.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/02/24/thoughts-revenue
Inflation
Declining confidence in controlling
inflation.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/fed-inflation-credibility-index-under-trump
Recession
Employment weaker than thought.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/q3-2024-qcew-suggests-employment-was.html
China
US China decoupling.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumps-big-salvo-toward-us-china-decoupling
Investing
Update on the
yield curve.
The probabilities
for errors are rising (I like Barry Ritholtz approach to investing. And I agree
with much of this analysis. But keep in mind in reading this that his political
leanings are left of center).
https://ritholtz.com/2025/02/probabilities-errors-rising/
The level of
uncertainty is rising.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-roads-lead-mar-lago
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Warren
Buffett’s latest letter to shareholders.
https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2024ltr.pdf
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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