The Morning Call--The inconsistency of Trump's policies on tariffs and the dollar

 

The Morning Call

 

2/27/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/trump-tariff-twist-trounces-dead-cat-bounce-crypto-carnage-continues-yield-curve-re

 

            Nvidia: the aftermath.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/life-after-nvda-print

           

            DJIA winning and losing streaks.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/02/winning-and-losing-streaks-for-dow.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 242,000 versus 221,000.

 

Q4 (2^nd estimate) GDP sales growth was 3.2%, in line; real consumer spending was up 4.2%, also in line; PCE prices were up 2.4% versus +2.3%; core PCE prices were up 2.7% versus 2.5%.

                         

January new home sales fell 10.5% versus forecasts of down 2.6%; building permits were off 0.6% versus +0.1%.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/02/more-unwelcome-news-in-new-house-prices.html

 

January durable goods orders rose 3.1% versus expectations of +2.0%; ex transportation, they were flat versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

                          January UK auto production was down 17.7% versus estimates of -20.0%.

 

February EU economic sentiment came in at 96.5 versus projections of 96.0; industrial sentiment was -11.4 versus -12.0; services sentiment was 6.2 versus 6.8; consumer confidence was 13.6, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Two measures of consumer attitudes.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/26/two-measures-of-consumer-attitudes-february-2025

 

                          Wednesday in the economic charts.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-headed-for-72000-these-metrics-could-hint-so?post=484307

 

            Overnight News

 

Canadian officials are undertaking a “full court press” in Washington this week to avert 25% tariffs on most of the nation’s goods, a minister said.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Is the yield curve about to re-invert?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/02/hello-nversion-my-old-friend

 

              Though longer term, it appears that Fed policy would favor higher long-term rates.

 https://wolfstreet.com/2025/02/25/future-of-the-feds-balance-sheet-feds-logan-on-how-assets-might-shift-from-longer-term-to-short-term-t-bills-repos-and-loans-after-qt-ends/

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              House republicans advance GOP budget.

              https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/johnson-and-trump-pull-off-surprising-win-to-advance-gop-agenda-after-vote-whiplash-in-the-house/ar-AA1zMiWu

 

              CFPB slush fund.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/5151136-federal-agency-slush-fund/

 

              Using blockchain technology to rein in the defense department.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doge-confront-dod-checkbook

 

            Inflation

 

              Ten forces pushing inflation higher.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/us-inflation-outlook/

 

              Global segmentation is inflationary.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/from-globalization-to-segmentation/

 

            Tariffs

 

              The inconsistency of Trump’s policies on the dollar and tariffs.

              https://www.barrons.com/articles/weak-dollar-trump-vance-reserve-currency-6851b258?st=e6mckE

           

              Copper now on Trump’s tariff hit list.

              Trump Announces Inquiry That Could Lead to Tariffs on Copper - The New York Times

 

              New Trump crackdown on China just beginning.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-china-crackdown.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine can forget about NATO.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-can-forget-about-nato-says-trump-thats-probably-reason-why-whole-thing-started

 

              A different take on the proposed US/Ukraine minerals agreement.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/02/trump-will-end-his-option-of-walking-away-from-project-ukraine-with-his-minerals-deal.html

 

    Investing

 

            Markets rethinking prospects for Trump2.0.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/are-markets-rethinking-the-prospects-for-trump-2-0/#more-23616

 

            Bitcoin headed to 72,000?

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/bitcoin-headed-for-72000-these-metrics-could-hint-so?post=484307

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            The weird new putting technique.

            https://www.wsj.com/sports/golf/aimpoint-putting-pga-tour-8868484c

 

 

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